Politico: All scenarios for the 2nd round of the presidential election in Romania

All eyes in Europe are on Romania.

Citizens of the country are coming to the polls for the first round of the controversial presidential election, in the shadow of concerns about Russian intervention, five months after the cancellation of the November election elections due to irregularities that led to the exclusion of the then -Akroukoukou.

Polls show the new leader of the far -right and head of the Romanian Union (AUR) George Simon again preceded, in an electoral process that threatens to shake the EU and NATO if Bucharest changed its course, abandoning it.

Based on the polls so far – which have not been able to predict the impressive rise and prevalence of George last year – there are four candidates who appear to be able to reach the crucial second round of presidential elections on 18 May.

This is the far -right Simon, the candidate of the ruling parties, Krin Antonescu, the independent center Nicusor Dan and the former leftist and current nationalist Victor Ponta. Each has appeared to take second place in the first round of the presidential election in separate recent polls.

Based on this data, Politico presents the potential twins that could claim power in Romania in the second round of presidential elections, and which “counter” scares Brussels more.

Simony vs. Dan

With Georgescu’s exclusion from the electoral presidential race, Simon has been placed as the most suitable candidate for nationalist voters – with apparent success.

The 30% of recent polls corresponds to the sum of the votes won by George in November and those he himself gathered.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s self -centered “fan” has presented himself as a catalyst for Change and Aur’s party, which has evolved into an important political force from an anti -vaccine movement. He has promised to set “limits” in Brussels and suspend military aid to Ukraine.

Simon has supporters mainly in small and medium -sized cities and rural areas, as well as among voters under the age of 45 with low income and low to medium levels, while also seeking to attract the votes of the diaspora, which is usually not calculated in polls, such as polls, Research.

On the other hand, the basis of Dan’s voters, a mathematician who founded the Union Party Savings Romania (USR), but goes down as independent in the elections, is quite different. It is extremely popular in Bucharest, where he is mayor, as well as in other large urban areas, but less in smaller cities and rural areas.

Although Dan is also very likely to garner votes, he is not yet well known outside Bucharest, which is actually his “Achilles heel”.

Throughout Romania, “10% of the population does not know who Nicksor Dan is,” and this could cost him victory in a two -way second round against Simon, according to Stefureak.

A poll published Monday by Curs, a Bucharest -based polling company, reached the same conclusion, giving Simon (54%) a lead of 8 percentage points against Dan (46%) in a supposed repeat.

Stefureak, however, stressed that it is still early, as the elections are still abstaining weeks, and that a second round campaign with “emotional weight” and appeal to a wider range of voters could prove extremely unpredictable.

Somon vs. Antonescu

Antonescu, the wife of former Romanian European Commissioner Antinea Valean, is the candidate of the ruling parties of Bucharest: the center -left Social Democratic Party (PSD), the center -right national liberal party and the Hungarian Party.

Supporting class status is a clear advantage for Antonescu, as the prevalence in the second round of the presidential election depends solely on the ability of candidates to garner votes outside their electoral base.

However, things are quite different in terms of the vote of the diaspora. 5% to 7% of all votes come from Romanians abroad, who tend to vote “against the system”, according to Stefureak.

As he points out, in November, Giorzescu won votes of the diaspora “welcoming” his expatriates with slogans such as: “You are there [στο εξωτερικό] Because of the failed government that could not secure the necessary prosperity in Romania and you had to leave your families. “

At the moment, Stefureak’s analysis “sees” Simon and Antonescu fighting chest to chest in the second round. Curs poll gives Antonescu a small lead, with 52% against 48% for Simon.

Simony vs. Bid

This is the one that more frightens the status quo in Romania and Europe in general.

Former prime minister and former PSD president, Ponta was forced to resign after the devastating fire that broke out in a 2015 nightclub, which was attributed to the extensive corruption of the party mechanism and triggered large demonstrations against him.

Under the slogan “Romania first”, it promises to stop exports of Ukrainian cereals through the ports of Romania (a basic exit gate for the warrants of the war) to protect Romanian farmers. It is an attempt to reverse the negative climate against him that has been argued that he was allowed to flood four Romanian villages on the Danube River in order to save the Serbian capital, Belgrade, in 2014.

Ponta appears more popular among older voters in smaller urban and rural areas, and as well as Simon is also trying to attract the vote of former George voters.

Meanwhile, last week, USR leaders provided their support to Dan against their own candidates, Elena Lasconi, in an attempt to prevent the point from being in second place and passing the second round of the election. A Simon – Pontes will be a “toxic” development, they warned.

Although both, Simon and Places, are presented as nationalists and anti -European, Ponta is probably “considered, compared to Simon, more pro -European” according to Stefureak.

As for the battle between them, a disadvantage for Simon are the accusations that have been expressed against him (which he has repeatedly denied) for meetings with Russian spies. He has also been banned from entering Moldova and Ukraine due to previous statements for territorial claims and ending military aid to Ukraine. However, during the pre -election period, he described Putin’s Russia as a major threat, while expressing his “sympathy” for the Trump Maga movement.

His reputation as a friend could eventually cost him the victory, Stefureak estimates. According to a recent poll, almost 90% of Romanians are in favor of the EU and NATO.

The possibility of its election also scares the EU, as Romania is one of the largest EU countries in a population, an important ally in the eastern wing of Europe and NATO and a strong military force. The victory of a politician who is skeptical of both the EU and NATO will hit the bloc’s plans to further support Ukraine in its war with Russia.

If the two are confronted with the second round of the presidential election, the match will be ambiguous, Stefureak estimates.

Points vs. Antonescu

With recent polls giving Simon more than 30%, it is currently more likely to be involved in the second round. As a result, the scenarios for a second round without his involvement seem to be bullied, but the striking rise that Giorzescu scored in November proved that nothing should be taken for granted.

Ponta led the PSD before setting up his own party, Pro Romania, resulting in his own supporters to have foundations in much of the PSD electoral base.

Both Antonescu and Ponta are “fishing” in a broad tank of voters, which can provide them with additional support if each one passes in the second round of presidential elections.

However, the greatest resonance of the stake between George’s supporters and Simon could make him an advantage over Antonescu if opponents are found in the second round, according to Stefureak.

Points vs. Dan

The broader support that Ponta enjoys could also make him an advantage over Dan, though a second round with the two candidates is currently unlikely.

Dan’s electoral base, for the time being, is quite limited. The USR’s decision to rally behind him could even return boomerang for Dan, as the close relationship with the central party is in danger of depriving him of votes from other sites, according to Stefureak.

A recent Curs poll gives both chances 50-50 to win a battle between them.

Dan vs. Antonescu

Finally, if Dan and Antonescu find opponents in the (currently unlikely) second round, it would also be an ambiguous battle as they “fish” votes in the same voter tank.

Dan has the support of the USR and is liked by high -level and wealthy Romanians in large urban centers.

Antonescu enjoys the support of ruling parties across the country.

But both of them will be called upon to “fish” new voters, while none of them are particularly popular among nationalists.

Curs poll, however, gives Antonescu a small lead, allegedly raising 52% against 48% that Dan would receive in a second round of presidential elections, although Stefureak estimates he could turn into a chest -to -chest battle.