One of the arguments most often heard in Washington is that Russia is now globally isolated, with China the main country to react in an ambiguous tone.
America runs the risk of being seduced by its own public relations message. The world’s reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is much more complex than that.
Since February 24, the West has mobilized to demonstrate more unity than it has shown in years. But most of the world waits on the sidelines of the field, waiting to see where the dispute will turn.
Not for the first time, the West is confusing its own unity with a global consensus. A misleading criterion for evaluating this unit is the UN. In the organization’s last count this month, 141 of the 193 member states condemned Vladimir Putin’s flagrant violation of international law.
But the 35 countries that abstained account for nearly half of the world’s population. They include China, India, Vietnam, Iraq and South Africa. If we add these countries to the list of those who voted in favor of Russia, the result is more than half of the world’s population.
What’s more, many of those nominally against Russia are hedging their bets. Saudi Arabia is considering China’s request to be paid for its oil in yuan. This would help weaken the dollar’s power. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates declined to take calls from Joe Biden this month when he wanted them to increase their oil production – a rare slight for a US president.
Last week, the Emirates hosted an official visit to Bashar Al-Assad, Syria’s dictator and close Putin ally, whom the US rightly considers a pariah. One reason the UAE is rehabilitating Assad is that Biden is pushing for the reactivation of the nuclear pact with Iran, a country feared in the region, which would release more oil on the global market.
Even Israel, which may be considered America’s closest ally, is taking a neutral stance, open to all possibilities. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is seeking to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine and has been keen to be impartial.
In a few months’ time, if Ukraine continues to humiliate Russia and the West manages to maintain its united position, all this may seem to be beside the point. Everyone loves a winner, and countries that are on the fence at the moment are likely to lean back towards the West.
The main abstaining countries at the UN — such as India, which quadrupled its oil imports from Russia at a discounted price compared to a year ago — would adjust their position, which is causing Washington distress. But the world’s ambivalence should give Biden and Europe food for thought.
One danger sign is the West’s usual tendency to claim moral leadership. This creates three problems. First, it’s hypocrisy. American public opinion has paid little attention to the disgusting carnage in Syria, for which Assad is the main culprit. Germany took in 1 million refugees in 2015, but most of the rest of the West did not follow suit. The United Kingdom and the United States together have welcomed less than 50,000 Syrians.
What Russia is doing to Ukraine is barbaric. But barbarism is not lacking in the world. Many people in the Muslim world, in particular, think that the US has double standards. Thousands of civilians died in Iraq and Afghanistan, shot down by US munitions, although they were not intentional targets (unlike what is happening in Ukraine).
A second point to consider is that the West is reckless when it assumes that its values ​​are universal. This week the US called what Myanmar did to its Rohingya minority genocide. Although Myanmar, unlike Ukraine, is located in the same region as India, Narendra Modi, India’s nationalist and Hindu prime minister, expressed only lip service. The fact that the Rohingyas are Muslims no doubt influenced him. India has taken in only a tiny fraction of the refugees. This despite the fact that India, unlike China, is a democracy.
The third point is that much of the world rejects Western sanctions. With the exception of fuel exports to Europe, the West largely divorced Russia within a month. The execution of this process has been amazing. But it also reminded other countries of the West’s ability to punish those it disagrees with.
It is very difficult to argue that the West is wrong in this instance. Putin has not only launched a deadly threat to democratic values, he is extolling the law of the jungle. It is not surprising that so many small countries have condemned Russia at the UN.
The Western public’s response to Putin’s barbarism has been admirable. But, inevitably, it is selective. The more Western governments understand how much of the world views them, the better able they will be to practice effective diplomacy.
