The two -day NATO summit In The Hague, which is expected to be a turning point for defense costs of Member States. According to the data so far, the 32 allies are expected to reach an agreement on Increase defense spending to 5% of GDPas a “return” for the continuation of US military support for Europe, as Washington seeks.

Challenges and negotiations for the new Secretary -General

Coalition of unanimity is a critical “bet” for the new NATO Secretary -General, Mark Ruttegiven the public demands of the US president and the strong reservations of some European governments. Rutte filed formatwhich provides for spending separation to 3.5% for purely defense purposes and 1.5% for investment in the overall “security”, also broadening the time of implementation at the end of the decade, instead of the seven years initially predicted. At the same time, he proposed a “review” clause in 2029.

Spain’s attitude It has emerged as a central issue of the meeting. Madrid holds objections to the percentage, claiming “flexibility” in the interpretation of the goals – a position made by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez after a letter from Route. In contrast, several partners see the risk of splitting the module, with some demanding corresponding treatment.

Reactions and fears of “domino”

NATO analysts and diplomats estimate that possible retreat in Spanish terms could open the “Pandora’s Box”giving other countries to other countries – such as Belgium and Slovakia – to make similar demands, with what this entails for the unity of the alliance. It is recalled that the Donald Trump Already in 2018, it has even threatened US departure from NATO.

As Mark Rutte underlined, countries like US, Poland and Estonia already approach or exceed the new target, while the Germany It is expected to commit to defense spending at 3.5% of GDP in an attempt to claim a leading role. OR Greece In 2024 it recorded spending of 3.08%, clearly exceeding its previous 2%target.

A possible derailment of the session could further complicate discussions in the imminent European Councilwhere the agenda includes a substantial increase in spending on European security and defense, taking into account the commitment that may be obtained within NATO, according to the draft conclusions.