The meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin It has been discussed on both sides for some time. So why would they like both sides to take place now? As CNN notes, Trump wants to exploit the power of his personality in order to reach an agreement, believing that Moscow’s six -month -olds can be overcome with a face -to -face meeting with the Russian leader. He seems to still believe that the Kremlin can be persuaded to stop the war, despite the fact that his Russian counterpart recently adopted the maximalist position that the Russian and Ukrainian people are one, and where a Russian soldier is on his foot.

Putin wants to save time, having already rejected in May the proposal of Europe, the US and Ukraine for unconditional ceasefire, proposing two unilateral, short and insignificant fire pauses. His powers are rapidly moving on the front on a spring attack that can bring him close enough to his goals to get a stronger paper in the autumn negotiations.

If the two men meet, an obvious US target will be a tripartite summit with Ukraine President Volodimir Zelenski to discuss the end of the war – Russia rejected something in May. Russia’s purpose is likely to allow Putin to pull Trump back in the orbit of Russian narrative.

However, a summit – that had been proposed in the past but had been postponed – may take place this time, and this raises the question of how the war will end. Here are five possible scenarios:

1. Putin agrees on unconditional ceasefire

Very unlikely scenario. It is unlikely that Putin will agree on a ceasefire with the front lines remaining as they are – the US, Europe and the Ukraine They have already sought such a pause in May, under the threat of sanctions, and Russia rejected it. Trump withdrew the sanctions, preferring low -level conversations in Istanbul, which did not lead anywhere. A 30 -day ceasefire earlier this year against energy infrastructure had limited application and success.

The Kremlin is currently turning the gradual profits to the forefront into strategic advantages and sees no reason to stop this advance now. Not even the threat of secondary sanctions against China and India – which look resistant to US pressure – will not change this immediate military calculation for the rest of the summer. At least until October, Putin will want to fight because he wins.

2. Procery and further conversations

Talks could reach an agreement on further negotiations later, which will seal Russia’s profits when winter comes, freely freezing the first lines around October. Putin may have understood the eastern cities of Pokrovsk, Kostiandinovka and Kupansk until then, thus acquiring a stable position to go in the winter and reconstitute. Russia will then be able to fight again in 2026 or use diplomacy to make these profits permanently. Putin can also raise the issue of elections in Ukraine – postponed by the war – to challenge Zelenski’s legitimacy and even overturn him in favor of a more pro -Russian candidate.

3. Ukraine somehow can withstand the next two years

In this scenario, US and Europe’s military assistance to Ukraine helps Kiev reduce concessions at the forefront in the coming months and leads Putin to seek negotiations as his army has failed once again. Pokrovsk may fall and other Eastern Ukraine forts may be threatened, but Ukraine could see Russia’s progress slow down, as has happened in the past, and the Kremlin could even feel the effects of sanctions and overheating.

European forces have already drawn up plans to send “peace forces” to Ukraine as part of security guarantees. These tens of thousands of NATO European forces could be placed around Kiev and other major cities, providing logistical and information assistance to Ukraine during its reconstruction, and create a sufficient deterrent so that Moscow decides to leave. This is the best that Ukraine can hope.

4. Disaster for Ukraine and NATO

Putin could distinguish the cracks in the West unity after a summit with Trump that would improve the relations between the US and Russia, but let Ukraine take over them alone. Europe could do everything possible to support Kiev, but it will not be able to change the balance without US support. Putin could see the small profits in eastern Ukraine turning into a slow defeat of the Ukrainian forces into territories between Donbas and the cities of Dnipro, Zaporizia and Kiev. Ukrainian defenses could prove to be weak, and the Kiev military crisis could turn into a political disaster when Zelensky demands broader surveillance to support the country’s defense.

The security of Kiev seems to be in danger again. Putin’s forces are going on. European forces estimate that it would be better to fight Russia in Ukraine than later on the territory of the European Union. However, Europe’s leaders ultimately do not have the political will to participate in a war for territory in Ukraine and Putin is moving forward. NATO has not managed to give a single answer. This is the nightmare of Europe.

5. Disaster for Putin: “Repeat” of Afghanistan

Russia could continue to make mistakes, sacrificing thousands of lives of soldiers on a weekly basis for relatively small profits, with sanctions undermining its alliance with China and revenue from India. The financial reserves of the Moscow State Investment Fund could be reduced and the revenue will fall. The disagreement within the Moscow elite could be increased because of the way the Kremlin rejected diplomatic outputs from the war that began, in favor of military perseverance and an indirect non -sustainable conflict with NATO.

In this scenario, the Kremlin could be found in a situation where his resistance to the difficulties of reality and the financial difficulties of his people himself would become toxic. Similarly wrong political mistakes were in the ultimately fruitless occupation of Afghanistan by the Soviets. Similar moments of unexpected weakness of the Kremlin have already appeared in the War of Ukraine, such as when Putin’s trustee, Gevgeni Prigozin, had been involved in a brief coup.

Putin is seemingly strong, until it appears weak, and then it can be revealed as extremely weak. This has happened in the past both in expansive Soviet Russia and Putin. The problem with this scenario is that it remains the best hope of Western leaders, who even want NATO’s complete involvement in the war to help Ukraine to win, but they do not see Kiev capable of militarily repelled Moscow.