Of Marc Champion

Ukrainian and European leaders are worried that Donald Trump will be trapped for the second time when he meets his Russian counterpart in Alaska on Friday and are right to worry. In fact, if Trump wants to get out of talks as a dormant negotiator and not as an easy opponent, the smartest move would probably be to postpone the meeting until he is better prepared.

It is not Trump’s mistake to attempt to sit at the same table with enemies and US opponents, even where more traditional leaders would avoid risk. But the hasty organized meetings rarely have the desired result, and everything that surrounds Trump’s visit to Trump’s Side Witten to Moscow, which led to the invitation to Alaska last week, are confusing.

With so much “fog” on the American side, the best way to understand what Friday’s meeting is to see it in the perspective of Vladimir Putin. For him, it is an unexpected opportunity he can use to relieve Trump’s sanctions threats and to enhance his war effort.

Something similar happened earlier this year, when the former KGB official took advantage of Trump’s obvious impatience to close a peace deal for Ukraine and restart with Moscow. No matter how much Trump was willing to give -even sanctions and lifting -, Putin saw only one thing: a strategic opportunity. With the US no longer wanting to assist in Ukraine’s defense unless they are paid, Putin made the only reason: he increased the intensity of the war on land and air, taking advantage of the weakening of Kiev. Eventually, even Trump was forced to admit that he had put him in a difficult position.

In the face of August 8, when the US would impose financial consequences on Russia because of its intolerance, Putin’s mission, when Witkov arrived in Moscow, was again just enough to delay any American energy, ensuring that it would have a reinforcement.

So far, this is going well. Got something without giving anything.

The first priority was to stay Volodimir Zelenski out of the room, instead of the trilateral meeting – for his honor – suggested by Trump. The presence of the Ukrainian leader would require real negotiation, making it difficult for Moscow to hide its indifference. Insisting on a private meeting with Trump, Putin may propose terms that the US government may accept, but knows that Ukraine cannot. Thus, Zelenski will again appear as the obstacle to Peace in Trump’s eyes, removing the pressure from Putin.

The second goal was to find a location for the meeting he would show, both to the Russians and leaders around the world, that Vladimir Putin is no longer a “pariah” who avoids traveling fearing arrest under the war warrant for war crimes.

In fact, this would be Putin’s first visit to the US (except for the United Nations trips to New York) since 2007, before his invasion of Georgia next year.

A meeting in Alaska, a US state that once belonged to the Russian Empire, would send Putin’s “restoration” message, while reminding the long historical range of the Kremlin as great power.

Trump’s own invitation is already a victory for the Kremlin. If the session also manages to delay US sanctions or produce a “peace” plan that will sow discord between Ukraine and its allies, even better. However, every real way for the permanent end of hostilities will require much greater pressure – both economic and military and preparation.

If the report of the German Bild magazine is accurate, Putin and his officials “played on their fingers” Steve Whitkov during their meeting last week, leaving him confused about exactly what Moscow offers.

No matter how much Witkov’s misunderstood, it was enough for the US president to say that “territorial exchanges” are on the table, and it is not. What seems willing to consider the Kremlin is the tradition of Donbas in practice that Russia has not yet been able to conquer, in return for a ceasefire.

So this is not an exchange of territories, but a permanent concession of territories in exchange for a rather temporary truce. According to Bild, the Russian “offer” can also require the previous withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from much larger areas in the provinces of Hersona and Zaporizia, which Russia claims to have attached but failed to understand.

The Kremlin may also be willing to provide a ceasefire in the air war to prevent sanctions, but it is a smaller concession. Unlike two years ago, when the Russian forces had the upper hand in the air, the new Ukrainian missiles and large -scale drones are now causing serious damage to Russian energy and military installations. On Monday, a Russian rocket guidance plant was hit near Nizny Novgorod, about 440 kilometers east of Moscow. A truce, at this stage, may be welcome on both sides.

The Ukrainians know that they will need to give up soil control to end Putin’s invasion.

What they have in mind is reminiscent of the concessions made to Joseph Stalin in Germany at the end of World War II. Stalin secured control of the eastern half of the country for the Soviet Union, but West Germany maintained its sovereign claim on the eastern side and eventually regained it.

Equally important, after a brief attempt to occupy the whole of Berlin, the Kremlin let West Germany prosper peacefully.

There is no indication that Putin wants such an agreement. Such a development would not serve the real goals for which the war began: ensuring control over a demilitarized Ukraine and the US acceptance of a Russian sphere of influence in Europe, without questioning NATO. Putin doesn’t hide that.

This means when he says he is willing to discuss a ceasefire as soon as the “main causes” of war are addressed. There will be time and place for a Trump-Putin summit. But it is unlikely to be in Alaska this week.