The French parliament will be convened at an extraordinary meeting in less than two weeks, with MPs being called upon to vote on the viability of Prime Minister Francois Bairou’s government and the package of austerity measures aimed at reducing the explosive deficit.

The proposed cuts have already sparked reactions from both the left and the right, but also to public opinion. Demonstrations against measures, including the abolition of two national holidays, have been scheduled for September 10, with the organizers calling on a nationwide strike.

In mid -July, Bairou defended his budget, saying it was necessary to cut costs of 43.8 billion euros to tackle France’s excessive deficit. “It’s the last step before the cliff, before we crushed our debt,” he said.

If Prime Minister François Bairou wins the confidence vote on September 8, he will find one step closer to the implementation of the rigorous austerity package, despite the popular reaction. If it loses, it will be forced to resign and France will be found – for the third time in 12 months – without prime minister and without national budget.

Here are three possible scenarios for the September 8 vote:

1. The Bairo government wins the vote of confidence

Such a result is considered the least likely, as the French prime minister simply does not have the numbers. From the early June 2024 elections, the National Assembly has been divided into three large blocks: the left alliance, the center of Macron and their right allies, and the far -right national gathering with its allies.

The pro -government forces are far from the 289 votes required for the absolute majority.

If the National Coalition, with its 123 seats, chooses abstinence, as it has made in previous Bayrou’s confidence votes, the French prime minister could persuade some smaller teams and get a marginal victory. However, there is no evidence that this will happen.

The main opposition parties, from the far right to the left, have already stated that they will not support the Prime Minister’s plan.

Despite the difficulties, Bairou on Tuesday called on the political forces to rethink it, noting that they have 13 days to “decide whether they are with the chaos or responsibility”.

2: The Bairo government loses, Macron is looking for a new prime minister

François Bairou’s defeat is considered the most likely scenario, which will remove him from the prime minister and force President Emmanuel Macron to seek the seventh prime minister of his term.

The center -right Bayrou has managed to stay in the prime minister for almost nine months, as his predecessor, Republican Michelle Barnier, collapsed after just three months in his attempt to pass the budget from the House.

The question now is who will accept to take on this almost difficult role. Macron could turn to a face from the left or the right, attempting to expand the alliance of Centers. However, such an option would be precarious due to the political impasse in parliament and there are not many candidates.

“When Bayrou replaced Barnier, there were not many candidates available,” notes Paul Smith, head of the Department of Modern Languages ​​at the University of Nottingham. “The big question now is who could find the middle path that would not prompt Lepen’s rage immediately.”

In December, right -wing Defense Minister Sebastian Lekorni and former socialist Prime Minister Bernard Kaznev were heard as potential candidates.

More likely, according to historian Andrew Smith of Queen Mary University in London, it is “to continue the current circle” with another government of Centers that will attempt to pass a mosaic of measures.

The possibility of prolonged political deadlock threatens to throw a heavy shadow in the last two years of Macron term. He insists that he will remain in the presidency by 2027, despite the growing calls for his resignation.

Macron’s far-left and fierce critic, Jean-Lyk Melanson, repeated the calls to the French president on Tuesday to resign.

“Macron is the chaos,” said the leader of the France, adding that he intends to activate an article that would allow parliament to move a process. “He has to leave.”

3: The Bayrou government loses, Macron calls new elections

If Bayrou loses the vote of confidence and his government collapses, President Emmanuel Macron will now be able, as they have spent 12 months after the last parliamentary elections, to call citizens again to the polls.

Such a move could unblock the impasse caused by the absence of a strong parliamentary majority. However, there is no guarantee that the new election will come out for the benefit of Macron, who has so far stated that it is opposed to this possibility.

On the contrary, Marin Lepen openly supports the idea of ​​new early elections, probably because her party has to win. “If there is a new dissolution, popular anger will push citizens to turn to the far right and the far left,” commented historian Andrew Smith, adding that this would lead to “dismantling the center and replacing the crisis with a new crisis”.

“If parliamentary elections are held in the coming months, it is possible that the National Coalition is likely to double the number of its seats,” Stephan Verne, Deputy Director of OUest-France, told France 24.

Polls show that public opinion supports a new electoral round: 63% of the French want the dismantling of the National Assembly to pave the way for elections, according to an IFOP survey on the LCI channel published on Wednesday.

At the same time, two in three polls showed that citizens would also like Macron’s resignation.

In one of the investigations, the National Coalition has gathered the most support to lead the next government, but without securing the absolute majority. “The National Assembly will remain divided between three large, incompatible blocks,” Verne warned.