FT: Upgrading Russian rockets exceeds Ukrainian Patriot defense

After months of fierce Russian air attacks, Ukrainian and Western officials estimate that Moscow has modified its rockets, making them capable of bypassing Ukrainian anti -aircraft defense.

Attacks made in the summer in Ukrainian drones manufacturing factories have clearly shown that Russian ballistic missiles have improved to better treat US Patriot arrays, as Ukrainian and Western officials in the Financial Times reported.

Russia has probably modified the Iskander-M mobile system, which launches rockets with estimated range of up to 500 km, as well as Kinzhal air-ground ballistic missiles, which can reach up to 480 km, added the same sources.

The rockets now follow a typical orbit before they divert their course and at the last stage fall abruptly or maneuvering the Patriot systems confusing, thus avoiding interception.

“This changes the data on Russia,” said a former Ukrainian official. With Kiev also facing delays in US anti -aircraft surrenders, Russian missile attacks have destroyed critical military installations and infrastructure in the winter.

Ukraine’s ballistic missile interception rate improved in the summer, reaching 37% in August, but collapsed at 6% in September, although Russian rocket launches were less, according to Ukrainian Air Force public data collected by the London Center for Information. Financial Times.

The Ukrainian Air Force announced on Wednesday that all four Iskander-M missiles launched at night avoided the country’s air defense and hit their goals.

At least four drones production units in Kiev and around the city were severely damaged by missile attacks in the summer, according to Ukrainian officials. These include a blow on August 28 at a facility produced by Turkish drones Bayraktar, according to public posts by local officials.

Two rockets launched in that attack appear to have targeted the offices of a company that planned and produced accessories for drones, two officials said. The Russian missiles avoided Ukrainian air defense and also caused damage to the offices of the EU and British Council delegation, which were nearby.

The Patriot intercept rockets are the only ones in the Kiev arsenal that can break Russian ballistic missiles. Russian Cruise missiles can be overthrown with less sophisticated air defense systems, but recent upgrades have made the process more difficult, according to officials.

A Western official who had been informed about Patriot’s performance data said that the first indication of Russian missile upgrades was the significant decline in interception rates.

According to him, a “motif” has been formed in which incoming missiles behave differently in their “final phase”, deviating from the known engagement arrangements.

This assessment is supported by a report by the US Military Information Specialist (DIA) inspector, which covers the period from April 1 to June 30.

The report said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces “faced difficulties in systematically using Patriot air defense systems to protect against Russian ballistic missiles, due to recent regular Russian improvements, including those who allow their rockets to change.”

The report reports a Russian attack on June 28 with seven ballistic missiles, of which Ukraine only shot down one. On July 9, during the biggest air raid since the start of the war, Russia fired 13 missiles, of which Kiev rejected or intercept seven.

Ukraine shares Patriot’s involvement data with the Pentagon and American manufacturers of the air defense system, according to Western and Ukrainian officials. Raytheon, based in Virginia, manufactures the Patriot system, while Lockheed Martin, based in Maryland, produces the system of intercepting the system. The data is used for the necessary upgrades to keep up with Russian adjustments, but one official said that these improvements often lag behind Moscow’s evolving tactics.

Sergei Kislitsia, first Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister, told the Financial Times that “the Russians continue to significantly upgrade the technology of Iskander and other rockets”. He emphasized that Kiev’s partners must stop the flows of Western origin to Russia, even those that reach it through China.

Analysts have stated that software adjustments are probably the reason behind the greatest efficiency of Russian missiles. Fabian Hoffmann, a missile researcher at the University of Oslo, said manufacturers are systematically exploiting data from intercepts to improve performance. Russia, he said, seems to do that.

The iskander-M “can perform quite aggressive maneuvers in the final stage,” he noted. Instead of costly changes to the material, modifications to guidance systems could order a rocket to perform a quick maneuver shortly before hitting the target and then diving abruptly, complicating the ability to detect and engage in Patriot.

Ukraine and Russia “play a game of adaptability” in terms of their weapons technology, Hoffmann said. But at the same time a game of “cat with the mouse” is played in trying to destroy each other’s weapons systems.

Kinzhal rockets are fired by strategic bombers or Moscow fighter aircraft, which are out of the range of Ukrainian air defense. Russia’s Iskander missile launchers were also difficult to neutralize from Kiev, Hoffmann noted.

Ukrainian Patriot air defense systems, which consist of radar, control station and launchers transported to trucks or trailer, are also mobile. Some of them have been targeted and damaged after months of continuous Russian attacks, which has weakened the multilevel architecture of Ukrainian air defense.

Specialized staff trained in Patriot systems is also a target, among them Lieutenant Colonel Denys Sakun, a 96th Brigade Anti -aircraft missile unit in Kiev. He had contributed to the installation of systems that, according to Kiev, first shot down a Russian KH-47M Kinzhal rocket.

Sakun was killed in December in his attempt to save Patriot equipment during a fire that broke out after a Russian blow to the Kiev area, according to public reports.

Patriots were previously protected by other systems, such as European IRIS-T and medium-range anti-aircraft arrays. Now, with some of these media being damaged or developed elsewhere, “Patriots are in some cases forced to protect themselves” while facing incoming Russian missile threats.

Ukraine does not disclose information about the number of Patriot arrays it has nor where they have been developed, but it is known that at least six have been delivered, and components for at least three additional more have been delivered in recent weeks by Germany and Norway.

President Volodimir Zelenski appealed to Ukraine’s Western partners to supply his country with more systems, demanding to buy up to 10 integrated systems.

With winter approaching, Zelenski has warned that Moscow is returning to its familiar strategy to hit the Ukrainian electricity grid to sink the country into the dark and bending the morale. But evolving Russian missile technology makes the threat even more intense this year.