After nine months of trying to get Russia to make concessions, the Trump administration, in a surprise move, announced Wednesday “massive sanctions” on Moscow’s two biggest oil producers. It was just a week earlier that US President Donald Trump had pulled out of the supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine after a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin secured an invitation to a second bilateral summit, this time in Budapest. Ultimately, the meeting was postponed after Trump said he did not want to “waste time” on another summit, although he left the door open, implying that “we will do it in the future.”

Will it destroy the Russian war machine?

As CNN points out in an extensive article, Trump’s frustration with Russia has been growing in recent months as it became clear that the much-hyped summit in Alaska had failed to stop the escalation of violence in Ukraine. In fact, he has changed his position on Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia, increasing intelligence sharing to help Kiev target military and energy facilities, sources told CNN last week.

And yet, after Trump’s failure for so long to follow through on his threats against Moscow, Wednesday’s move to impose sanctions on Russian oil giants and their subsidiaries stunned experts.

“It was really surprising simply because there was always a discrepancy between Trump’s rhetoric and actions,” Maria Sagina, a senior researcher at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told CNN. “It seems that today Russia has exaggerated and Trump’s patience is wearing thin“, he wrote.

What exactly are the penalties?

This is the first time Trump has imposed direct sanctions on Russia since he returned to power in January, although in August his administration announced secondary tariffs on India for purchases of Russian oil.

The sanctions are formal, in the sense that the companies listed – Rosneft and Lukoil, along with dozens of subsidiaries – will have their assets frozen in the United States and American entities will be prohibited from doing business with them. But most experts agree that the targeting of Rosneft and Lukoil represents a significant shift in Trump’s stance.

Last January, the Biden administration attacked Russia’s third and fourth largest oil companies, Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegaz, in the final package of sanctions, but did not touch the most feared escalation of global oil supply disruptions that would also lead to an increase in its price.

What else is the West doing?

Also, for the first time during Trump’s second term, there was coordinating sanctions with NATO allieswhich has been standard practice under the Biden administration.

On October 15, the United Kingdom expanded its sanctions to include Rosneft and Lukoil, and on Wednesday, the European Union also unanimously approved its 19th sanctions package. This package includes a complete ban on trading in Rosneft. And while it is not targeting Lukoil, it is targeting Litasco, a Lukoil commercial unit in the United Arab Emirates, which the European Union describes as “the prominent shadow enabler of Lukoil’s fleet”.

“This is a clear message from both sides of the Atlantic that we will continue to put collective pressure on the aggressor,” wrote European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who also spoke by phone Wednesday with the US Treasury secretary.

How big of a blow is this to Russia?

According to CNN, the impact these new US sanctions could have on the Russian economy is up for debate. Shagina, a senior fellow at the IISS, points out that the move comes at a “vulnerable point” for Moscow, which is dealing with the double whammy of Western sanctions and what she calls Ukrainian “physical sanctions” with its ongoing drone attacks on its Russian energy infrastructure. These attacks have already contributed to a 20% reduction in Russia’s energy revenues so far this year, although Moscow plans to cover some of the shortfall through tax increases.

“It’s a strong message, but still more of a message than a huge blow to the Russian economy,” said Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He points out that so far there has been little to no impact on the ruble and that Lukoil and Rosneft shares have fallen but “not collapsed”.

Experts widely expect that while there may be temporary supply disruptions, Russia will find ways to keep its oil – including that produced by Lukoil and Rosneft – flowing to global markets.

Will this hurt the global economy?

But the big question for both Russia and the world economy, experts say, is the how will india react to these new US sanctions. Citing industry sources, Reuters reported on Thursday that Reliance Industries, India’s biggest importer of Russian crude oil, plans to reduce or stop imports altogether as US pressure mounts on New Delhi to stop importing Russian oil as a condition for reducing tariffs.

For Russia, this would be critical. India imports 1.5 to 2 million barrels of Russian crude of oil per day, estimates Ajay Parmar, director of oil markets and energy transition at Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), accounting for about 30-40% of all Russian exports. If those imports stopped suddenly, “that would leave only China as the big buyer of Russian oil,” he told CNN. “I think it’s unlikely that China will buy all of that lost oil, so some of it might be pulled from the market, and that’s really the biggest factor in higher oil prices right now,” he added.

U.S. crude oil prices have fallen nearly 25 percent from their peak in January, a decline that has given Trump “more room now to impose sanctions,” noted Janis Kluge. But the challenge will be to avoid sustained price increases that could provide a windfall to Moscow and partially offset the impact of the sanctions, he said. That would likely mean Trump would put further pressure on OPEC+ to boost oil production, Parmar said. If Trump succeeds, price increases could be contained.

Will this bring Putin to the negotiating table?

According to CNN, on their own, these sanctions are not even remotely enough to prompt a course correction in Moscow, experts agree. And yet, they could signal more difficult times for the Kremlin.

Putin’s response, which came nearly 24 hours after the US sanctions were announced, was somewhat contradictory.

The final economic impact of these new sanctions on Russia has yet to be determined, but the political shift is worrying for Moscow, Kluge said.

“Yes, it could be different tomorrow again,” he said of Trump’s approach to Russia.

But “it is a sign that the previous way of dealing with Russia, in which there was always one more chance … one more extension of the ultimatum … is effectively over.”