Is the Russian army focusing on its logistical reorganization? Or are the difficulties he is facing such that he has no choice but to limit his ambitions?
Six weeks after the start of the Russian invasion and the constant appearance of problems, the question remains.
If the western experts agree on the description of a failed start to the war for Moscow, which dreamed of occupying Kyiv in a few days, the current fold and development to the east and the Donbas region can be interpreted differently.
“After the failure in Kyiv, the Russians “They did not succeed in splitting the front and penetrating, with the exception of southern Ukraine, where they attacked from the Crimea to the Kherson and pro-Russian territories,” a source in the French military staff told AFP. “They are taking a defensive stance on most of the front lines to the north and are focusing their efforts on the strategic zone.”
But, after the finding, the question of the significance of the Russian rearrangement remains. “It is difficult to judge whether they are on a strategic pause to restart the attack or whether they have been damaged,” admits a French military source.
The Russian forces “They can prepare for a wider attack in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (…) but they will have trouble demonstrating the necessary combat power,” predicts the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
For example, according to retired French Armed Forces Colonel Michel Goya, “the 1st Armored Army was transferred to the area of northern Donbass in view of the decisive battle in April.” But, “when this offensive massive firepower is damaged in late April-early May, Russia’s maneuvering ability will be almost nil.”
On the verge of exhaustion
The information transmitted by the Ukrainian side refers to very heavy human and material losses of the Russian army.
The figures for the Ukrainian side are less well known, which complicates the analysis of the balance of power. But the fact is that the defending army suffers fewer losses than the attacker.
“A military unit that has lost 30% of its combat capability is ineffective,” said Rand Corporation expert Rafael Cohen, based on (unconfirmed) estimates that put the Russian army at 7,000 or more than 15,000. up to 20,000) men.
However, the Russian conscripts who are called to replace these losses have unequal training and mercenaries are less than expected. “If Russia can not make up for its losses, it is in danger of running out.”
For his part, Michel Goya notes that the mercenary company Wagner, beloved by Vladimir Putin, accepts any candidate.
“These individual-level armies are aimed at closing holes and not at building new forces, and they are an indication of the very high level of casualties on the Russian side,” he said. In his opinion, Russia seems to have “lost the corresponding thirty tactical battle teams out of the 120 involved in the attack against Ukraine and with a maximum capability of about 140 tactical battle groups.”
At a time when Western governments are turning their attention to the atrocities being committed in Russian-controlled areas, the military is questioning the balance of power.
Loss of initiative
“We have not seen a massive restructuring and deployment of Russian forces withdrawing from northern Ukraine,” said an unnamed Western official. He expects Moscow to reconsider its narrative of its military objectives, as well as of what it considers success and failure.
On May 9, Moscow will celebrate the significant anniversary of its victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. The Kremlin will have a desperate need to present victories to justify its intervention in Ukraine.
But the findings of recent days are not encouraging for the Russian military. “Russia has completely lost the initiative,” said the Western official. “Even yesterday, we saw phalanxes of Russian armor trying to get on highways and failing to resist the Ukrainian resistance,” he said. “Even if they learn (…) they continue to undermine their ability to achieve their goals.”
The final fall of Mariupol, the strategic port in the Azov Sea, seems imminent. The city has been literally leveled by weeks of bombing and its occupation would be an important strategy for Moscow.
But the hardships of the past six weeks, the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian forces, the coldness and the volume of Russian casualties – which include a disproportionate number of high-ranking officers – are straining the mental health of Russian forces.
The General Staff “gives instructions for restricting the access of Russian soldiers to the Internet in an effort to address low morale,” adds the Institute for the Study of War.
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