A “real embargo” on Russian energy from Western countries could end the war, says former Russian president’s economic adviser Vladimir Putin.
Dr Andrei Hilarionov, Putin’s financial adviser from 2000 to 2005, who now lives in the United States, told the BBC that Russia “did not take” the threats seriously other countries to reduce energy imports.
Despite its efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, Europe continues to buy oil and gas.
Last year, with prices soaring, oil and gas revenues accounted for 36% of Russia’s government spending. Much of this revenue came from the European Union, which imports about 40% of its gas and 27% of its oil from Russia.
This week, Josep Borrell said that “we pay a billion (euros) to Putin) every day for the energy he supplies us.”
According to Dr. Hilarionov, if Western countries “were trying to impose a real embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia, I bet that in a month or two, Russian military operations in Ukraine would probably cease.”
“It’s one of the most effective tools that Western countries still have,” he added.
At a time when Russia’s central bank itself is forecasting an 8% contraction in the country’s economy this year (the International Institute of Finance expects a 15% recession), Hilarionov estimates that Putin is prepared to withstand this blow to the economy.
“His territorial ambitions, his ambitions for an empire, are far more important than anything else, including the livelihood of the Russian people and the economic situation in the country, and even the economic situation of his government.”
Hilarionov sees a change of government in Russia as inevitable “sooner or later.” “It is absolutely impossible for Russia to have any positive future with the current political regime,” he said, adding that the country could not re-integrate into the world economy with Putin.
Money Review
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