Russia has closed in on the last defenders of the port city of Mariupol and is beefing up positions around the country’s east, moves to prepare the battle that could bring the war in Ukraine to a conclusion — whether or not it is favorable to the Kremlin.
Situated on the southeastern coast of the country, Mariupol is the missing piece for establishing Russian land control of a strip linking the Donbass (Russian-speaking east) to Crimea, Russia’s historic peninsula that was annexed from Ukraine in 2014.
The city is practically destroyed, although there are still residents seeking to leave – a new humanitarian corridor was announced by the Russians on Monday (11). Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky told South Korea’s parliament via video that “tens of thousands of people have died there”.
It’s not a measurable data at this point, like practically everything that happens on both sides of this conflict, soaked in exaggeration and fake news. According to the Russian press, the facilities at the port of Mariupol were taken, trapping the last resisters.
The eventual fall of Mariupol would complete the southern scenario for the Battle of Donbass, already announced by Moscow as its objective at this stage of the war. To this end, there are reported troop reinforcements across the region already occupied by separatists in the self-proclaimed republics of Lugansk and Donetsk and north of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, which has been under attack since the beginning of the war.
According to a Russian military analyst, who requested anonymity, Moscow is expected to launch an attack that tries to circumvent the so-called line of contact, the real border between areas seized by pro-Russian rebels since the civil war that began in 2014 and the main Ukrainian forces – around than 40,000 well-trained men.
In the nearly two months of war, the Russians and their allies failed to break through the line itself. The bombing already underway against the cities of Rubijne and Popasna indicates this movement, engaging Ukrainian forces. For the analyst, Moscow will meanwhile shift forces to maneuver towards the southwest, circling Kramatorsk to try to envelop the Ukrainians.
Unlike the first phase of the war, with multiple fronts and dispersed forces, action tends to be more focused and to take place in fields less congested by cities. If he wanted to scare the whole of Ukraine, arriving at the gates of Kiev with insufficient forces on the second day of the war, Putin failed.
As he never announced anything other than the “demilitarization, denazification and protection of the people of Donbass” as a goal alongside preventing Ukraine from joining NATO (Western military alliance), the Russian will always be able to say that he had no intention of conquering Kiev. .
The tactic of maneuvering to place Ukrainians inside a “cauldron”, subject to air and artillery fire, has already worked on a smaller scale in the battle between separatists and Ukrainians that defined the 2015 ceasefire. Doing it against 40,000 men , however, is another story.
On the opposing side, the signs were seen. Pentagon officials told reporters that the Russians could double or triple the number of troops now stationed in Donbass. And the government in Kiev said it expected the offensive “in the next few days”.
The battle hints at a turning point, perhaps final, in the war. Putin appointed General Aleksandr Dvornikov, who had a ruthless reputation when he led Russian forces in Syria, to command the action.
If the Russians can either destroy or withdraw Zelensky’s forces from the region, they will be able to seize the pre-civil war borders of Lugansk and Donetsk provinces. The military situation could lead to an effective peace negotiation, it remains to be seen how Kiev’s expectations of having Western protection in exchange for not joining NATO will be met.
If it is a very significant victory, Putin will be in a position to dictate more terms. For now, the war continues: its chancellor, Sergei Lavrov, said that the fighting will not cease as long as there are peace negotiations.
But the president can, in the analyst’s opinion, lose. The risk is that of lack of reserves: as it did not declare war to keep the pantomime of a “special operation” for the internal public, there is no access to forces available in a national mobilization. In this case, a defeat will have to be packaged as some partial victory, and the risk of a violent escalation is not ruled out.
So, if they decide to stay for the fight, the Ukrainians have a chance. Their problem is the likely attrition of their forces, which is not accurately scrutinized due to the support that Kiev’s cause has from governments and also in the media, obscuring information.
Furthermore, hitherto the weapons supplied by the West, portable anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, were quite effective for ambush warfare on the outskirts of Kiev and other cities. On a maneuvering field, more armored vehicles, tanks and air and air defense cover would be needed, which the Ukrainians do not have.
Instead. Russia announced on Monday that it had destroyed the long-range S-300 anti-aircraft battery regiment, probably the one that Slovakia had donated to Ukraine. There is no independent confirmation of this, but according to Moscow the launchers were in Dnipro – which would give them range (150 km) to hit Russian aviation over Donbass.
London has promised Kiev 120 tanks, and the German company Rheinmetall has said it could supply some of its 60 decommissioned Leopard-1 tanks, which are in stock, in two months, if Berlin allows. All of these announcements are pretty much symbolic, in terms of making any difference in time for the battle to come.
