The re-election of Emmanuel Macron is the latest defeat for the French extreme right in its traditional model. The second round proved, once and for all, that Marine Le Pen’s political legitimacy does not derive from her charisma or her intelligence, but from her dynasty, which represents the French racist and denialist current since the post-war period.
After three defeats, she will hardly be able to lead what appears to be a transitional process for the far right, with the integration of the most radical elements of the traditional side of the field and the rise of disruptive leaders like Eric Zemmour. The Le Pen brand may continue in the electoral game through Marine’s niece, the young star Marion Maréchal, but the family is unlikely to maintain its almost thaumaturgical right to run for president in the name of its ideological bloc.
Macron can be proud of being the first president re-elected in 20 years. His predecessors would hardly have survived a term filled with revolt, pandemic and war.
Under his command, France ceased to be the “sick man of Europe”, impossible to reform and permanently unemployed. German economic vitality no longer seems like an unattainable mirage, and the Ukrainian War confirmed Paris’ position as the geopolitical capital of the European Union. Memorial initiatives on French complicity in the Rwandan genocide and the Algerian war are turning a page in French history.
The question is whether the king will have a reign. Organized around the president’s individual project, República Em Marcha will have difficulties in naming a successor to its creator and intellectual idealizer. France Insubmissive, a coalition of different electorates, will hardly resist the departure of its leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
In this context, the traditional post-presidential conversations about party strategies and the fate of leadership do not make much sense. The chance is high that, five years from now, none of the bigwigs on the French political landscape will be here anymore.
This moment of transition makes the elections for the French Parliament, which will be held in June, the most uncertain in history. The viability of the future Macron government depends on them, which will likely have to compose an acrobatic majority through alliances with what remains of ecologists, conservatives and socialists.
Accompanied by a worldwide audience and correctly presented as a moment of truth for Europe, the French election will also be remembered by the international mobilization. Lula’s message of support for Macron on the eve of the second round coincided with public, and somewhat unprecedented, demonstrations by the rulers of Spain, Germany, Portugal and Italy.
At a time when Jair Bolsonaro (PL) returned to flirt with electoral vandalism, the episode sets an important precedent for Brazil. Democracy is fragile, but the French election shows that Europe and Latin America are still willing to fight for it.
