If everyone who participated in the rehearsal shows up for the show, the US should soon revert to abortion rights. Draft initial vote on Roe v. Wade, leaked to Politico on Monday (2), shows that the Supreme Court will change its understanding of legislation in force since 1973.
Thus, the victory of a classic conservative flag should become Donald Trump’s first triumph for 2024, the year in which, it is speculated, he will try to return to the presidency. With the Republican Party under his control, it is very likely that in the coming days he will take advantage of the leak to come out in a campaign tone saying that the conservative brand he printed in court has already delivered results.
In his four years in the White House, the Republican appointed three justices to the Supreme Court, a third of the court’s composition. It has widened the lead of five conservative-biased judges versus four progressive-biased judges to at least five to three — the judge missing from the account is the court’s president, John Roberts, who in recent years has joined the liberal wing in many decisions. , but was born conservative.
It is not yet known, for example, how he will position himself in the final vote.
Joe Biden’s only nomination so far won’t tip the scales either, as Ketanji Jackson, 51, will fill in for Stephen G. Breyer, six to half a dozen overall. What really mattered were the nominations of Trump, the trio Neil Gorsuch, 54, Brett Kavanaugh, 57, and Amy Coney Barrett, 50.
As the seat in the American court has no time limit or minimum age for retirement, the reflexes of the former American leader’s appointments will last for decades.
The initial court vote mirrors a wave that has swept over Republican-led states such as Texas, with increasingly restrictive changes that even encourage an atmosphere of general paranoia, with rewards to civilians who report those who practiced or helped carry out a crime. abortion.
In fact, the contents of the leaked draft are hardly surprising: in the analysis of a Mississippi law that prohibits abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, four judges have already indicated that they are in favor of the rule.
Whoever leaks something, in fact, is the one who is losing and needs to reverse the situation. Even if the final vote score is unlikely to change, revealing a scenario generates public debate, which can create an environment that convinces Judge Roberts to vote along with dissent — and a score of 5-4 will certainly express disagreement greater than one. 6 to 3, and any unforeseen change in court would bring the issue back.
With Biden low in popularity, affected by the decline in Americans’ purchasing power, the difficulties in getting rid of a virus that is slow to disappear and a country still very divided between blues and reds, Trump will be able to test as early as November how well- coming will be a new application.
By the end of the year, the narrow Democratic majority in the Senate and House could evaporate. An average of polls compiled by the website FiveThirtyEight shows that voters today want more Republicans (45.2%) than Democrats (42.8%) in Congress — a small advantage may be enough to shift a majority.
Both six months from now and in November, conservative agendas will be present, be it the control that parents can have over what is taught to their children in schools, leading to lists of banned books, or the right to abortion. If the economy is in the clouds at the time of the two elections, which seems impossible now, given the context of the Ukraine War, and unlikely two years from now, issues related to culture wars may even be less influential at the time of voting.
Be that as it may, Trump has made a strong case in the effort to sell that four more years of the most controversial leader in recent US history will make the Supreme Court even more conservative.
