The evolution of the battle of Donbass, the region of eastern Ukraine that could define the course of the war started by Vladimir Putin, suggests the Russian difficulty in sustaining the offensive with the soldiers it has.
Since late last week, there are signs that Moscow has withdrawn its men from around Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city, northwest of the regions that make up Donbass, Donetsk and Lugansk.
This Monday (16), Ukraine’s Defense released images celebrating what would be the arrival of its forces to the border of the Kharkiv region with Russia – this would indicate the end of the risk of a siege.
The attacks there continued over the weekend and Monday, but with missiles from planes in Russian airspace. At the same time, there are reports of a concentration of forces around Severodonetsk, which, despite its name, is in Lugansk. Last week, Russia had already taken over tactical areas there.
According to the analysis of Western entities such as the American Institute for War Studies and Russian observers on their channels on the Telegram app, the bulk of the fighting is expected to take place there. If this is confirmed, the Russian idea of ​​encircling all Ukrainian forces in Donetsk and Lugansk appears to have been abandoned due to lack of forces, yet another military failure for Putin.
By attacking Severodontesk, the most feasible objective of taking all of Lugansk becomes evident. Hence, perhaps the next step is the Ukrainian areas of Donetsk, showing that there is no Russian energy to carry out the declared will to take the whole of Donbass more quickly.
That goal was announced by the Russians after what they called the first phase of the military operation last month. In reality, Moscow has failed to take Kiev by orchestrating a multi-front, low-force invasion, underestimating the Ukrainian resistance and military support it receives from the West.
The second phase, in Donbass, is in any case in line with what Putin announced on February 24: protect the self-proclaimed republics of eastern Ukraine. They have claimed for themselves the historic territories of Donetsk and Lugansk provinces since they entered a civil war with Kiev in 2014.
“The operation in Donbass failed,” wrote on his Telegram channel Igor Girkin, who was one of the main military commanders of the civil war and now lives in Moscow. Putting a grain of salt in the assessment, given that it was taken by Moscow from the Ukrainian stock, is a voice that knows the local reality.
He emulates what other Russian analysts say: that only greater mobilization and even greater brutality can bring Putin some sort of victory. So far, the Russian has refused to do so, seeking to give the war a limited character.
The West said that Russia mustered perhaps 200,000 men for action, 150,000 of them on the front lines. Today, analysts see the figure of 80,000 troops as more likely.
The UK says that a third of the invasion’s tactical battalions were taken out of action, meaning they lost at least 50% of their strength – on a bakery account given the unreliable Russian official dead-to-wound ratio is. from 3 thousand to 10 thousand fallen. Analysts such as Michael Kofman, from the CNA center (USA), assume that a mobilization may not solve the most immediate problem, as it brings in conscripts and reservists with little training.
A month after its beginning, the Battle of Donbass for now has only brought tactical gains, most of them for Russia, but it still hasn’t changed the strategic reality. Putin appears to be counting on the war of attrition eventually facilitating further progress, enabling him to end hostilities in a position of strength — having taken more territory than he had before.
This would be consolidated with the control of southern Ukraine, increasingly designed as a pure and simple annexation of the corridor between Russia’s Rostov region and Crimea, annexed in 2014. The question remains whether Putin would be able to maintain such gains if there is no peace. and a war of lesser intensity is established in the region.
Another point is the range of Russian. Based on an apparent verbal slip-up by a Russian general, there is consensus in the West that the Kremlin’s plan includes taking the rest of the Black Sea coast and merging its control with Russia’s breakaway region of Transnistria, in neighboring Moldova. But nobody really knows what Putin wants.
This uncertainty, added to the opacity about what really happens on the battlefields, casts doubt on any assertion about war. Side by side: Volodymyr Zelensky’s repeated speeches about the difficulties in the east could be a portrait of reality or just a call by the Ukrainian president for more weapons and money.
The scenario, however, seems to suggest a prolongation of the war. There, the establishment of more or less clear lines may even facilitate the idea of ​​a ceasefire, although Kiev refuses to discuss it. On Monday, Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that “looking for options for Putin to save his face is simply a false approach.”
