The preliminary results of the Lebanese legislative elections indicate a significant change in the country. The radical Hizbullah faction and its allies, backed by Iran, lost most of their seats in Parliament, giving way to opposition groups and new leadership.
Apparently, the diaspora — including those based in Brazil — had some weight in Sunday’s election (15). Final figures have not yet been released, but analysts believe Hizbullah and its partners cannot win more than 64 of the 128 seats. In 2018, they snapped up 71 seats.
One of the most significant defeats was that of Talal Arslan, an ally of the faction and a traditional figure in Lebanese politics. He lost to rookie Mark Daou in the district he ran for, in Mount Lebanon. There were other cases of established politicians being defeated by new faces across the country.
Another important defeat was that of the Free Patriotic Movement, an ally of Hizbullah that is expected to lose several seats. Thus, the Lebanese Forces must become the main Christian force in Parliament.
The defeat of Hizbullah and its allies, if confirmed, would also be a defeat for Iran and could put a brake on its growing influence in the country. Instead, your enemy Saudi Arabia can benefit.
How much Lebanon will change, however, depends on negotiations starting now, in the shadows. The country has a sectarian electoral system, in which seats are allocated according to faith — half for Christians and half for Muslims. As no one group is expected to have a majority of seats in Parliament, discussions between the various parties can lengthen, postponing the political and economic reforms necessary to save the country from one of the worst crises in its recent history.
Sunday’s elections were the first since the collapse of the Lebanese economy, in which the local currency lost more than 90% of its value. Three quarters of the population now live in poverty. This was also the first election since the explosion that, in 2020, devastated the port region of Beirut and left at least 218 dead, in addition to billions of dollars in damage.
It was also the first vote since the great popular protests of recent years. There was, therefore, a great expectation regarding the turnout of voters at the polls. In a way, the results were disappointing. Even after an intense campaign, participation was lower than in the previous election. Attendance was 41%, up from 47% in 2018, excluding the diaspora.
These percentages indicate the exhaustion of the population, in a country that has not yet recovered from the civil war fought from 1975 to 1990. There is clear disgust with a political class that continues to perpetuate itself, taking advantage of the corruption that weakens politics and the economy. from the country.
One of the surprises was the growth in voting abroad, carried out a week earlier, although the percentages were not that different. Nearly 60% of registered voters outside the country have voted now, up from 56% in 2018. But the sheer numbers show a significant shift.
There were almost 130,000 votes in the diaspora this year, up from 46,000 four years ago. Many more people had registered to vote, even though they had not turned up. The participation of the Lebanese in Brazil also grew. According to data from the embassy, there were 1,414 voters in São Paulo, Rio, Brasília and Foz do Iguaçu. In 2018, only 287 had voted in the election. The numbers are still low, considering the fact that Brazil is probably home to the largest historic Lebanese community in the world.
As most arrived at the turn of the 19th to the 20th century, fleeing the Ottoman Empire and the French Mandate, they no longer have Lebanese citizenship and do not maintain such strong ties to the land of their ancestors. There has been a recent surge, however, for them to obtain Lebanese citizenship and move closer to the country.
