Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Bolsonaro’s fear at the time of penalty or red card

Jair Bolsonaro believes that the Superior Electoral Court can revoke his re-candidacy. He is very nervous because the government and allies in Congress are not able to implement measures that reduce his unpopularity (fuels, wages, income tax reduction, etc.) — they do not help him to govern and they con him.

He fears being “betrayed” soon if the risk of electoral defeat remains high. Abandoned, he thinks that it would also increase the risk that he, children, close friends and even Michelle Bolsonaro fall into the hands of justice or the police.

Bolsonaro is more afraid.

That’s what a palace adviser and a parliamentarian who usually make “bridges” between the government, Congress and the Supreme Court say, who takes and brings hot cloths for being “a friend of institutional stability and dialogue”, he says.

This is how the last two explosive days explain, in which Bolsonaro, foaming, said in public that he will not comply with “absurd orders” from the courts, a promise soon underlined by the memory that he is “head” of the Armed Forces. The new outbreak may have been triggered because the Supreme Court reaffirmed the impeachment of former state deputy Fernando Francischini (União Brasil do Paraná), who lost his mandate for “fake news” fraud in the 2018 election.

Wouldn’t the strategy be creating the usual turmoil, with threats to the STF, etc.? The people heard by the journalist are a little off-putting. Bolsonaro’s “concern” is said to be “real” and “legitimate”.

Once again now, as in 2020 or, in particular, on September 7, 2021, allies in Congress, the regents of the centrão and gang, told Bolsonaro to tone down. If nothing else, fury takes votes away, qualitative research indicates. The spread of the idea that you are afraid of losing and that you are struggling in a desperate or electoral way can be just as bad, they say.

Qualitative research from mid-May, commissioned by parties outside the government, suggested that Bolsonaro’s violent and “ill-mannered” ways go bad particularly among women, the poor and non-whites. It is also bad for Bolsonaro to have fun with motorcycles and jet-skis and so many people are in misery.

One of Bolsonaro’s allies says the government has qualitative research that “goes a little along this line”. More specifically, the interviewees do not like to hear so much talk that deals with electoral fraud, the Supreme Court and that criticizes so many people, instead of dealing with the difficulties of the poor and the future of the country.

Urna, Supreme, is “speech for converts”, says the parliamentarian who tries to put on a hot plate. In calmer times, he says, Bolsonaro seems “humble”, listens to what they say and “even gets emotional” (cries and gives hugs). From one day to the next, it seems that he “gets taken over by something bad”.

The parliamentarian thinks that his children (with the possible exception of Flávio), palatial generals and “followers” “put a pile” on Bolsonaro. In any case, he says that Bolsonaro is unpredictable and comes up with decisions that surprise even the closest political circle, which is not sure where such attitudes come from (they cite important appointments and decisions about Petrobras, for example).

As was to be expected, the two informants say that there is no chance of a coup, an attempt to smear the election or create street riots, although the government wants to stage a large demonstration on September 7, 2022. Bolsonaro would only be outraged by “excesses”, which he expresses in an “unsuitable” way. He would be a very “tense”, “anguished” and “dissatisfied” man with the “bad luck” that his government faced (epidemic, war) and tormented by the idea of ​​betrayal and being unauthorized.