Inflation measured by the IPCA-15 (National Consumer Price Index Extended 15) rose 0.69% in June, informed this Friday (24) the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
The result came a little above financial market estimates. In the median, analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency projected an advance of 0.68%. The IPCA-15 had risen 0.59% in the previous month (May).
With the entry of new data, the IPCA-15 accumulated a high of 12.04% in the 12 months through June. In this cut, the variation had been 12.20% until May.
The official inflation index in Brazil is the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index), also calculated by the IBGE.
As the IPCA variation is calculated over the reference month, the data for June is not yet complete. It will be known on the 8th of July.
The IPCA-15, as it is released earlier, signals a price trend. The leading indicator is usually calculated between the second half of the previous month and the first half of the reference month of the disclosure. In this case, prices were collected from May to June.
In the 12-month period, the IPCA-15 is well above the inflation target pursued by the BC (Central Bank) for the IPCA. In 2022, the center of the benchmark measure is 3.50%. The ceiling is 5%.
Financial market analysts project a new burst of the target in 2022, which would mean the second consecutive year of noncompliance.
Over the course of the pandemic, inflation has gained momentum due to a combination of factors.
Scarcity of inputs, high production costs of various goods, negative effects of the climate on energy and food and impacts of political turmoil on the exchange rate are part of this list in Brazil.
In 2022, an additional component began to pressure part of prices: the War in Ukraine. With the conflict, oil and agricultural commodities rose in the international market.
The reflection in Brazil was the record of new highs in fuel and food prices during the first half of this year.
political impact
With the elections approaching, the escalation of inflation became a headache for President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
The scarcity of items such as fuel is seen by members of Bolsonaro’s campaign as the main obstacle to reelection.
Under pressure, the president has piled up attacks against Petrobras in recent days. The reason was the new readjustment of gasoline and diesel oil announced by the state company on June 17th.
The advance, which took effect at refineries the next day, should impact the IPCA at least in June and July, according to economists.
In an attempt to curb the famine, Bolsonaro on Thursday (23) sanctioned the law that sets a ceiling for ICMS (state tax) rates on fuel, energy, transport and telecommunications.
The president, however, vetoed a device that sought to guarantee the recomposition of funds for health and education in the event of damage to these areas due to loss of revenue.
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