New public of social benefits can exceed 8 million after release of PEC

The government-planned expansion of social benefits could send money to more than 8 million people who currently do not have access to payments. The extra funds will be deposited as of August, less than two months before the presidential elections.

The number of people served can influence the outcome of the elections, if the popularity of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) increases among the beneficiaries. The difference in votes observed in the last election (in 2018) between him and the runner-up, Fernando Haddad (PT), was 10.7 million votes in the second round.

Bolsonaro’s package targets the electorate that is most in tune with former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), according to Datafolha. The PT achieves 59% of voting intentions among those receiving Auxílio Brasil, while Bolsonaro has 22%.

Lula’s advantage remains among the population that receives up to two minimum wages (R$ 2,424). He scores 56%, against 20% for Bolsonaro.

The creation or expansion of benefits in 2022 was released by a PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of interest to the government, approved by Congress to overturn fiscal and electoral legislation and allow the benefits to be boosted amid the race for Palácio do Planalto.

Leonardo Paz Neves, an analyst at the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s Center for Prospecting and International Intelligence (FGV NPII), says that it is difficult to predict the behavior of beneficiaries in elections and that there are different variables involved. Even so, he says the payments tend to favor Bolsonaro.

“The balance of this policy will be positive for him, because he will not lose any votes with this. The question is how positive this will be”, he says. In Neves’ accounts, even if all 8 million were turned into votes for Bolsonaro, the president would still not win the elections against Lula.

For Neves, inflation (which limits the effect of the measures) and the short time for receiving the funds (which should start in August, close to the elections in early October) weigh against Bolsonaro. In addition, not all the beneficiary public are voters (a large part is under 16 years of age, for example).

On the other hand, payments can have a popularity multiplier effect. “Poor families have a core [composto de diferentes pessoas]so the help received by the mother and who brings meat to the table after many months has an impact on the father, the grandfather…

The numbers are not closed, but the government estimate is that about 2 million families on the waiting list can enter Auxílio Brasil because they fit the rules. It’s R$ 600 to be paid per home.

Considering the average used by specialists of 3.1 people per family in the program’s income bracket, there is a potential of 6.2 million new people served (in this case, not all of them are voters, as most of them are under 16 years of age ).

In helping self-employed truck drivers, the government expects to serve 900,000 people. The number was provided by Bolsonaro on a social network and the amount to be paid is BRL 1,000 per driver per month.

For taxi drivers, payments can reach 1.1 million people. The number considers the ceiling of BRL 2 billion determined by the PEC approved by Congress and the value of up to BRL 300 per month per person until the end of the year informed by Bolsonaro on social media (according to him, the amount will be at least BRL 300 per month). 200, a number that would increase the number of recipients).

Despite the enactment of the PEC last week, Palácio do Planalto still needs to plan the payment of benefits and make the release of funds possible.

Government technicians are preparing an MP (Provisional Measure) to pass on the amounts authorized by the PEC. In addition, the rules for truck driver assistance and taxi driver assistance need to be defined, which is under the responsibility of the Ministry of Labor and Social Security.

Auxílio Brasil and Auxílio Gás are programs that already exist and, therefore, it is enough to release the extra money. The extra R$ 500 million released by the PEC to the Alimenta Brasil Program, which buys food from farmers and donates it to families in the Cadastro Único and social assistance entities (such as shelters for the elderly and schools in vulnerable regions) is also exempt from regulation.

The PEC was the way found to circumvent the barriers of the electoral law that prevent the creation of benefits before the elections.

Now, in addition to the release of benefits, the government wants to anticipate the payment of aid, including the income transfer program.

Auxílio Brasil usually starts to be paid in the second half of each month. But the idea is that, in order for the transfer to be made on the same day as the other benefits, technicians work with the scenario of anticipating the program’s payment schedule.

One of the proposals is to start benefit payments in the second week of August, around the 9th.

Minister Ronaldo Vieira Bento (Citizenship) defends that the Auxílio Brasil payment schedule should be permanently brought forward to the first fortnight of each month.

In the case of truck driver and taxi driver aid, the elaboration of the programs is still under discussion, but the text of the PEC provides for six installments for these groups.

Therefore, government technicians say that the benefit should be doubled in August for these two cases – paying the retroactive payment to July, a period in which it will not be possible to finalize the structure of the program.

To identify the self-employed truck drivers, the registration of the ANTT (National Land Transport Agency) database will be used. The document is called the National Registry of Road Cargo Carriers (RNTRC).

Taxi drivers need permission to provide the service issued by the municipal or district government until May 2022. The Ministry of Citizenship even informed that the value would be R$ 200, but the benefit can rise to R$ 300 per installment.

The social benefits package will have a total cost of R$ 41.25 billion. The measure is seen by the Bolsonaro campaign as a way for the president to reduce the impact of inflation on the lower-income population and try to improve performance at the polls.

The legislation prohibits the implementation of new benefits in the year of the elections. The only exceptions are programs that are already running or when there is public calamity or a state of emergency. Therefore, the state of emergency was included in the PEC – which gives the government more security, but was criticized by experts.