The prospect of frozen radiators or idle factories haunts governments. How European states are fortifying themselves in view of the difficult winter ahead
Lowered thermostat and woolen sock: Europeans are getting ready for one difficult winter with Russian natural gas down, following the Russian invasion that turned the energy world upside down.
In the first line, the Latvians they no longer have, since the end of July, any Russian natural gas and know what to expect in the coming months. “Energy prices are so extreme that we have installed individual water heaters. It’s less expensive than using the collective hot water supply,” says a resident of the border with Russia, warning the “politicians” that he’s waiting for help to pay the next inflated bills, “otherwise they’ll be in trouble.”
As in Latvia, the tap has already been turned off for her Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Poland. As for the rest, the flows to Europe are decreasing: already in July they were decreased by 70% year-on-yearaccording to experts.
In Europe’s capitals, the prospect of frozen radiators or idle factories haunts governments, which know that Vladimir Putin is wielding the energy weapon strategically. Decreases in exports have caused the surge in the price of natural gas and electricity, since many thermal power plants operate with natural gas. The price of oil has also risen, showing some decline recently.
The war unleashed “the first real global energy crisis in history,” says Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency. And Europe is at the center of the storm.
Natural gas is of such critical importance, especially in highly dependent countries such as Germany and its heavy industry, which is exempt from Western sanctions, unlike coal, which is subject to a total embargo, and oil, which is subject to a gradual embargo.
“Business Thermostat”
The already significantly reduced natural gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline between Russia and Germany “will fluctuate between 0% and 20% of capacity in the coming months, causing a recession in Europe during the winter of 2022/2023,” predicts Matt Oxenford of the Economist Intelligence Unit.
In the event of a shortage, the authorities will cut off supply to businesses as a matter of priority: in France, as in Germany, governments are drawing up plans to choose which businesses will be sacrificed first.
However, consumers who heat or cook with natural gas are also asked to save energy, while Brussels is asking the 27 member countries to reduce by 15% natural gas consumption.
Italy already started in the spring the “thermostat operation” to reduce heating and air conditioning in schools and public services. The initiative was imitated by Spain and Germany.
Especially in Germany, a campaign was launched to reduce air conditioning, promote the use of public transport and supply shower heads that help save water.
Coal and LNG
France has frozen gas prices for domestic consumers, but in Germany, household bills will be hit by hundreds of euros a year.
In view of the difficult winter expected, the consumer advisory center in the North Rhineland-Westphalia it has never been so busy in its 40 year history. “There will be many households that will not be able to pay,” predicts the center’s representative Udo Sieverding.
There are many who get information about installing solar panels. But coal suppliers also have a lot of work to do.
France, for its part, is again resorting to the “waste hunt” of the 1970s: shops that use air conditioning are asked to keep their doors closed.
France has also engaged in a race to secure alternative energy sources, such as LNG (liquefied natural gas) or highly polluting coal.
France has temporarily abandoned a plan to shut down a coal-fired power station and wants to install a new floating methane terminal, a decision denounced by environmentalists.
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