Lula maintains wide advantage among Brazil Aid recipients

Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) maintained a wide advantage over President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) among voters receiving Auxílio Brasil even after the release of the second installment of the additional benefit that the program began to pay in August.

A survey carried out by Datafolha this week shows that Lula has 56% of voting intentions among program beneficiaries, and Bolsonaro, 28%. The two maintained the same numbers as in the previous survey, carried out two weeks ago, after the payment of the first installment.

Among non-beneficiaries, the PT fluctuated from 44% to 42% of preferences, within the survey’s margin of error, and the president remained stable, with 34%. Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB) had positive fluctuations in both groups, also at the margin.

Lula’s advantage over Bolsonaro, from 28 percentage points among those receiving Auxílio Brasil, drops to 22 points among voters who are outside the social program. According to Datafolha, 24% of those interviewed receive assistance income or live with a beneficiary of the program.

The institute interviewed 5,734 people in 285 municipalities between Tuesday (30th) and Thursday (1st). The study’s margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The research was commissioned by Sheet and by TV Globo and was registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court).

Created by the Bolsonaro government a year ago, Auxílio Brasil serves 20 million families in poverty and extreme poverty. It replaced Bolsa Família, a program that Lula launched in his first term and became a trademark of PT administrations.

The aid is one of the president’s main bets to regain his popularity and respond to voters’ concerns about the future of the economy in his re-election campaign, but polls suggest the program’s electoral impact has been reduced.

Since the beginning of the payments, Bolsonaro has gained points among low-income voters, where the program’s beneficiaries are concentrated. But Lula’s advantage over the president remains very large in this segment, which comprises more than half of the electorate.

Among voters with a monthly family income of up to two minimum wages (R$2,424), Lula had 56% of voting intentions in May and now has 54%. Bolsonaro had 20% of preferences in this segment and reached 25% this week, according to the Datafolha survey.

The assessment that Auxílio Brasil beneficiaries make of the president’s performance as head of government has improved in recent months, approaching that of the population as a whole. In both cases, however, the government’s assessment is predominantly negative.

According to Datafolha, 42% of voters consider the Bolsonaro government to be bad or terrible, 31% think it is great or good, and 27% think it is fair. Among those receiving Auxílio Brasil payments, 41% disapprove of the government, 28% approve it and 30% consider it regular.

Until July, Auxílio Brasil paid R$ 400 per beneficiary. The total amount was raised to R$ 600 with the creation of the additional benefit, but its fate is still uncertain. By law, the extra payment is only guaranteed until December. Lula and Bolsonaro promise to keep him if they are elected.

Previous surveys by Datafolha showed that the majority of voters who receive the aid find the amounts paid by the government insufficient, even after the introduction of the additional benefit, and believe that it was only created because the president wants to be reelected.

Families that are part of the social program will also be able to contract payroll-deductible loans linked to the benefit, committing up to 40% of their income to payments.

The government predicts that the payroll will start in mid-September. According to the Ministry of Citizenship, it is necessary to wait for the regulation of the body to, only then, sign a contract with the entities that will be able to offer the loan.

Datafolha’s research shows that most do not intend to take the credit. According to the institute, 67% of those who receive the aid said they do not intend to take out loans in the form created by the government. Only 27% said they were interested in taking the money under these conditions. Another 6% said they don’t know what they will do.

According to the law that created Auxílio Brasil, families in a situation classified as extreme poverty, with a monthly per capita family income of up to R$105, or poverty, with earnings of up to R$210 per member, can register to receive payments. of the family.

According to Datafolha, interest in the payroll loan is higher among beneficiaries aged between 35 and 44, reaching 32%, and among those with a monthly family income of two to five minimum wages (R$ 6,060), a segment in which reaches 29%.

The possibility of borrowing was criticized by specialists and consumer protection entities, who saw the measure as a stimulus to the indebtedness of very vulnerable families, who already find it difficult to guarantee their livelihood and therefore entered the program.

But there are also situations in which credit can be advantageous, for beneficiaries who want to open their own business or avoid the loss of assets given as collateral for other financing. Interest and other conditions will be set by the financial institutions, not the government.

The survey shows that interest is greater among beneficiaries of Auxílio Brasil who are part of the least vulnerable segments of the labor market: salaried workers with a formal contract (29%), self-employed and self-employed professionals (30%) and small entrepreneurs (38%). .