Datafolha: Lula advances among beneficiaries of Auxílio Brasil, and Bolsonaro’s assessment does not improve

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Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) remains in first place in terms of voting intentions among those benefiting from Auxílio Brasil, having increased his advantage over Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in this group of voters, according to the most recent survey by Datafolha.

In the first survey carried out after the first round, there was an improvement in the assessment of the current management in relation to the survey prior to the vote, but this trend was not confirmed in this second round.

The share of voters interviewed who said they would vote for Lula rose from 56% to 62%, in the comparison between the survey carried out on Thursday (13) and Friday (14) and the survey of the previous week. Considering only valid votes, without blanks and nulls, the vote intention for PT rose from 60% to 65% in a week in the electorate benefiting from the aid.

The variations are above the margin of error, which in this question, for this audience, is up to four percentage points.

33% of respondents said they will vote for President Bolsonaro, compared to 37% in the previous poll — a drop from 40% to 35% considering only valid votes.

This public includes people who say they receive or live with a beneficiary of Auxílio Brasil. They represent 27% of voters surveyed.

Auxílio Brasil received an adjustment to R$ 600 two months before the election and had its scope expanded on the eve of the second round. This week, Caixa started contracting the payroll loan for these beneficiaries. This month, the payment schedule has been brought forward and will be from October 11th to 25th, before the second round.

Among voters from families benefiting from the aid, 59% responded that they would “certainly” vote for Lula, compared to 55% a week earlier. For Bolsonaro, the percentage of certainty went from 36% to 32%.

The survey showed a stable picture in the dispute, when considering all the interviewees, benefited or not by the program. Lula is ahead with 49% of the total votes, against 44% of the current occupant of the Planalto.

The former president has a 22-point advantage over Bolsonaro among voters with a monthly family income of up to two minimum wages, a group that also includes those benefiting from the aid. The PT marks 58% of voting intentions in this group, compared to 54% last week, and the rival registers 36% (they were 37%).

The research photographs this stage of the electoral race and does not necessarily predict the vote they will have on the 30th, when the second round will be held.

GOVERNMENT ASSESSMENT

Also according to Datafolha, 29% of voters who receive the benefit, or live with someone who is a beneficiary, consider the current government to be great or good, compared to 31% last week and 27% in the last survey before the first round.

44% consider Bolsonaro’s management to be bad or terrible – from 41% in the last survey. Those who classify it as regular add up to 26% (was 28% a week earlier).

All variations are within the margin of error for this question among this audience, which is up to five percentage points down or up.

Among those who do not receive the aid, approval rose from 39% to 41%, while disapproval ranged from 40% to 38%.

REJECTION

The rejection of Bolsonaro is at 59% among those benefited by the program and 44% among the other voters interviewed. 31% and 47% reject Lula, respectively.

For 53% of those benefited, their lives will be better with the election of Lula. They make the same statement in relation to Bolsonaro 22%.

Among those who receive Auxílio Brasil, 20% say they always trust what the president says — in the last survey the rate was 24%. Before the first round, it was 18%.

According to the survey, 55% of beneficiaries say they never trust Bolsonaro’s words, an increase of six percentage points compared to the previous round (49%) and stability compared to the result a week earlier (56%).

In this second round of interviews for the second round, the institute heard 2,898 people in 180 cities, on Thursday (13) and Friday (14), in a survey commissioned by Sheet and by TV Globo registered with the TSE under the number BR-01682/2022.

The readjustment of the benefit amount was one of Jair Bolsonaro’s main bets in this election. From September 19 to 30, income was paid to 20.65 million families, 450 thousand more than in August, when 20.2 million were entitled. According to the Ministry of Citizenship, Auxílio Brasil is paid to 21.1 million families in October, after the inclusion of 480,000 new beneficiaries.

In the first round, however, the expansion of the program failed to reverse the trend of PT votes among the poorest.

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