The price of gasoline sold at gas stations in the country has been rising for two consecutive weeks, according to data from the ANP (National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels).
This happens despite Petrobras’ delay in passing on the increase in the price of a liter on the international market to local refineries.
According to the CBIE (Brazilian Infrastructure Center), the state-owned company has been selling gasoline at refineries for six weeks below the PPI (Import Parity Price). Already the diesel follows without adjustment for four weeks.
On Tuesday (25) Petrobras’ gasoline was 12.27%, or R$0.46 per liter, cheaper than international prices. Diesel follows 14.13%, or R$ 0.80 per liter, below the value.
Specialists interviewed by BBC News Brasil attribute the increase in the average price of fuel at Brazilian stations to a natural adjustment of the market motivated by the growth in demand and the rise in the prices of gasoline and diesel sold by the private refinery in Mataripe, in Bahia, responsible for about 14% of the country’s total refining capacity.
“First of all, what I understand as natural market adjustments. Each post is trying to recover its margin, given that we have had a big reduction in recent months”, says Pedro Rodrigues, managing partner of the Brazilian Infrastructure Center (CBIE).
According to the analyst, the several consecutive drops recorded in previous months increased consumption among Brazilians – according to the ANP, gasoline sales in Brazil by distributors in the first seeds of this year grew 10.8% compared to the same period in 2021. -, motivating gas stations themselves to raise prices.
Fuel prices are free in Brazil, that is, each station can stipulate the price of gasoline, diesel or ethanol they want.
“The price lag forces greater demand. And companies end up passing this increase on to the consumer because they identify a mismatch within the market itself”, summarizes Juliana Inhasz, economist and professor at Insper (Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa).
In addition, the Mataripe refinery has been faster than Petrobras in passing on variations in international quotations to the prices of its products.
At the beginning of the month, the refinery raised the price of gasoline by 9.7% and that of diesel S-10, by 11.3%.
The company says that its prices “follow market criteria, which take into account variables such as the cost of oil, which is purchased at international prices, dollars and freight, which may vary up or down.”
How much has gasoline gone up?
According to the ANP, which weekly monitors fuel prices at Brazilian gas stations, between September 25 and October 1, the average liter sold at gas stations was R$4.81.
In the week from October 16 to 22, however, the average price increased to R$ 4.88, which already represented an increase of 0.41% compared to the previous week (R$ 4.86).
Between October 16 and 22, the highest value of the liter found by the agency was R$ 6.90. In the same period, the region where gasoline is more expensive is the Northeast, with an average price of R$ 5.10.
The rise also reached diesel, which registered its first increase since the end of June on the same days. The average price of a liter increased from R$6.51 to R$6.59 in one week, an increase of 1.22%.
And Petrobras?
Prices are rising despite Petrobras selling gasoline at refineries below the price on the international market.
The International Price Parity (PPI), adopted by the state-owned company since 2016, determines that the oil company charges, when selling fuel to Brazilian distributors, prices compatible with those abroad.
“Petrobras, in theory, continues to follow international parity, but it started to pass on price drops very quickly and it is taking longer to pass on the rises”, says economist Rafael Schiozer, finance professor at FGV EAESP.
The lag occurs because since September the international prices of oil and derivatives have risen again, due to cuts in supply by producing countries gathered in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Before that, however, the price of fuel in Brazil was falling, mainly due to the reduction in the value of a barrel of oil in the international market and in the exchange rate.
In June, the government also approved tax measures to reduce fuel prices, such as the law that limits ICMS on items such as diesel, gasoline, electricity, communications and collective transport and the cut of federal taxes Cide and PIS/Cofins on these products.
Why are the prices at the gas stations rising then?
In addition to the natural adjustments in the market due to the increase in demand, the growth in prices may be influenced by transfers from the Mataripe refinery, in Bahia.
Given that the company is currently responsible for around 14% of the country’s total refining capacity, an increase in the values charged by it has an influence on the national average prices and, especially, on the values transferred by gas stations in the Northeast region.
For Schiozer, the variation in the exchange rate may also be acting on fuel prices, since oil is traded in dollars on the international market.
“The exchange rate interferes in the price of imported gasoline and, indirectly, in the one that is refined in Brazil”, he says. “The dollar was around R$ 5.10 for a long time and now it is at R$ 5.32, an increase of almost 5%.”
On Tuesday (25), the American currency gained 0.26% against the real, at R$5.316 on purchases and R$5.317 on sales.
Juliana Inhasz, from Insper, also claims that recent exchange rate variations may also be behind the Mataripe refinery’s decision to increase its prices.
“The exchange rate should influence more the prices practiced by Petrobras than by the refineries, but there is also an impact”, he says.
“The exchange rate can intervene mainly in the increase of the cost to bring the raw material to Brazil.”
Why the delay in passing on prices?
In the opinion of Pedro Rodrigues, from CBIE, Petrobras’ lag in relation to international prices may be motivated by a desire to avoid constant readjustments caused by a very volatile market.
“The speed of transfers is part of the policy of each direction of the state-owned company. And the logic is often to wait for the price to rise to the limit of the company’s commercial and financial possibilities so as not to reduce consumption”, he says.
But for Rafael Schiozer, from FGV EAESP, the delay in passing on the amounts may also be linked to the elections scheduled for next Sunday (30), when President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is running for reelection against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). ).
“After the elections, it is likely that Petrobras will transfer the amounts it has held up until now”, says the economist.
According to a report in the newspaper O Globo, technicians from the state-owned company and part of the board say that it would already be necessary to readjust prices, but that the government has been pressing to avoid a price increase before the second round of elections, scheduled for Sunday (30).
In an interview this month with the EPBR channel, the executive director of Exploration and Production at Petrobras, Fernando Borges, said that the state-owned company benefits Brazilian society by taking longer to raise fuel prices.
The executive considered that there is currently a moment of great volatility in the international oil market within the same day and that the company avoids immediately passing on these movements to the domestic market.
But he acknowledged that the company has cut prices at a faster rate than it considers to raise prices.
According to Schiozer, the government of the current president has chosen the current president of the state-owned company, Caio Mário Paes de Andrade, with the intention of delaying the readjustments for electoral purposes.
“He can’t say he’s not going to follow par, but he may have some discretion to control how fast he makes the adjustments.”
Juliana Inhasz, on the other hand, bets on a combination of marketing and political factors. “There is clearly a damming of prices to avoid increases at the door of the second round”, she says.
“At the same time, we have recently seen big swings in the price of oil – and Petrobras may be trying to avoid unnecessary changes and stresses in the economy by waiting a little longer to readjust the price.”
This text was originally published here.
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