The dollar fell against the real in the first negotiations this Thursday (29) after opening higher, in a session that should be affected by the proximity of the formation of the Ptax rate of the month, which serves as a reference for the settlement of derivatives.
At 9:14 am (Brasília time), the dollar spot BRBY fell 0.1%, to R$ 5.2520 on sale.
The Ptax is calculated at the end of each month by the Central Bank and financial agents usually try to direct it to more convenient levels for their positions, whether they are bought or sold in dollars, which generally increases volatility.
On Wednesday (28), the penultimate day of business in the financial market saw a strong recovery on the Brazilian Stock Exchange after two falling sessions, while the dollar and future interest rates retreated. Positions of the future government gave a positive bias to the session, overcoming a day of volatility abroad.
The spot commercial dollar closed the trading session down 0.64%, quoted at R$5.2520 at the sale. In the accumulated result for this year, the American currency registered a devaluation of 5.8% against the real.
The Exchange’s reference index, the Ibovespa, rose 1.53%, to 110,236 points, leading the indicator to erase this week’s losses and to move towards a positive close of 2022 by approximately 5%.
Investors negotiated this Wednesday under the expectation of relief for the public accounts after the future Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), requested the day before, by decision of the graduated president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), that the government of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) does not extend the exemption of federal taxes on fuels.
Haddad also said in an interview with journalist Míriam Leitão, published this afternoon in O Globo, that he will start his term by tidying up the house and reviewing benefits created by Bolsonaro in his bid for re-election. After the release of the future minister’s statements, the Ibovespa rose by approximately half a percentage point.
In practice, the market welcomes the possibility of an increase in revenues and a posture considered to be a little more conservative by the future management, which reduces fears regarding possible difficulties in paying the public debt.
Étore Sanchez, economist at Ativa Investimentos, calculated that the reinstatement of taxes would raise his estimate of inflation for next year from 5.1% to 6%, but would result in a drop from 3.5% to 3.4% in the years of 2024 and 2025.
For RB Investimentos strategist Gustavo Cruz, despite the impact on inflation, the return of taxation will avoid a loss of revenue with an impact of R$ 50 billion in the first year of Lula’s government.
“It does not mean that the exemptions will not be resumed, but, for the time being, 2023 starts with the taxes back. This has an inflationary impact, it is true, however, the fiscal risk decreases considerably with this extra or normalized collection for the next year. year,” he said.
Stock exchange sectors that depend more on a scenario of economic stability had a positive day, such as banking and retail.
“The fall in future interest rates helped to boost the cyclical consumer sector, which was the high point of the day. The greater relief with the political risk also boosted the recovery of the high for the financial sector, another highlight of the session”, commented Bruna Sene , investment analyst at Nova Futura.
The negative exterior prevented the day from being even better in the Brazilian market, mainly due to the impact on Vale’s shares, which retreated 0.22% with investors weighing the prospect of increased demand for iron ore in China, which has been reducing restrictions against Covid, but also fearing that the progress of the health crisis in the country could have negative consequences.
Thus, the news about Covid in China, which was used to justify optimism, began to explain pessimism about the East, said Sanchez, from Ativa.
The New York stock market ended lower in a session marked by volatility. The benchmark S&P 500 Index lost 1.20%. Dow Jones (-1.10%) and Nasdaq (-1.35%) also fell.
Analysts at the New York Stock Exchange highlighted that the reopening of China brought concerns about the sudden increase in demand in the country, which could result in more inflation for the whole world and in new highs in the Fed’s reference interest rates (Federal Reserve, the bank central United States).
With Reuters
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