The Stock Exchange benchmark reached a weekly high of 4.10%, the first advance after four consecutive weeks in the red. This was also the best period since the 4.70% gain in the week ended March 5, 2021.
Highs followed by the most important commodities for the domestic stock market, especially oil, were decisive for the recovery.
In this Friday’s session (14), the Ibovespa rose 1.33%, to 106,927 points and detached itself from the global markets. For this, it also counted on the positive evaluation of investors about the rise in domestic retail. The dollar retreated 0.28%, to R$ 5.5130.
The country’s retail sales volume grew by 0.6% in November 2021, compared to October, the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) reported on Friday, a performance that was above expectations. Analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency had expected stagnation (0%) in sales.
The detailing of this retail high, however, reveals that the financial market is looking at the half full side of the glass.
It’s just that the rise only happened because promotions of food and beverage products put the supermarket sector in the blue. In previous years, the period was marked by an increase in electronics sales due to Black Friday.
“The detachment of Brazilian stocks [do exterior] is partly due to the higher-than-expected retail result. It is not such a relevant increase, but it shows optimism,” said Davi Lelis, a specialist at Valor Investimentos.
Mixed data from the first balance sheets of banks in the United States also encouraged investors in relation to shares in the Brazilian banking sector, which, greatly depreciated, showed a recovery this week, according to Rodrigo Moliterno, equity manager at Veedha Investimentos.
Highs followed by Petrobras shares stand out among the main positive contributions to the Ibovespa this week. The company’s preferred shares rose 3.73% on the day and 11.6% on a weekly basis.
The state-owned company, which announced an increase in fuel prices this week, has been gaining in value in the wake of the rise in oil. The barrel of Brent rose 2.34% in this session, at US$ 86.45 (R$ 478.44).
The geopolitical crises in producing regions and, mainly, the insistence of the main supplier countries in not accelerating the increase in supply in the midst of a growing global demand are responsible for the appreciation of the commodity.
In the United States, the main indices closed mixed after a session full of volatility.
After falling 2.5% the day before, the Nasdaq index had a partial recovery. It closed up 0.59%. On the week, however, it fell 0.28%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.56% for the session, while the benchmark S&P 500 ended up slightly up 0.08%.
Alongside the advance of the omicron variant of the coronavirus, inflation remains on the American investor’s radar as the main concern. This has been putting downward pressure on the country’s stock market due to the expectation that the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US central bank) will promote consistent increases in benchmark interest rates.
Antônio Sanches, an investment specialist at Rico, explains that there is a movement of investment rotation from growth stocks, as many of the companies listed on Nasdaq are classified, to value stocks, which are companies considered to be financially consolidated.
“Charge longer [na carteira] those companies whose growth is projected for the future becomes less advantageous when interest rates rise”, he commented.
The Fed has already confirmed that it will raise rates this year in an attempt to draw liquidity from the economy to curb the country’s highest inflation in four decades.
This movement values ​​US Treasury bonds, making this extremely safe investment more interesting than risky investments in stocks of companies that are still forming cash.
Emerging market stocks are doubly affected by the rise in US interest rates, as in addition to the unwillingness of global investors to invest in these markets, the rise in the US reference rate increases the value of the dollar.
In the foreign exchange market, pressure from opposite directions made the dollar move sideways during this Friday’s session, according to economist Cristiane Quartarolli, an exchange specialist at Banco Ourinvest.
On the one hand, the growth of domestic retail generated expectations about the need to maintain the high Selic rate, which tends to promote the appreciation of the real against the dollar. On the other hand, the expectation of an increase in interest rates in the United States tends to increase the value of the American currency.
“So this volatility picture should continue”, says Quartarolli.
Despite the currency’s 0.28% drop, the fiscal risk should trigger new highs, according to the economist.
She points out that the pressure for salary adjustment in arrears due to federal servants is accompanied by apprehension by the market.
Signs of increased public spending raise fiscal risk and tend to appreciate the dollar, as it is in the US currency that many investors seek protection.
Among the highlights of the session, Banco Inter rose 7.92%, amid positive revaluations of the company’s value. After rejecting a proposed merger by shopping center operator Aliansce Sonae, brMalls shares rose 7.01%. Banco Pan shares advanced 6.13%. Investors reacted to the increase in BTG’s stake in the company.
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