Oil prices hit seven-year highs on Friday, as geopolitical tensions and a winter storm in the United States fueled concerns about supply disruptions. Experts say prices are likely to rise further, above US$ 100 (R$ 532) per barrel.
Brent crude was up more than 1.5% to $92.70 (R$ 493) a barrel around 9 am (Brasilia time), close to the highest levels since 2014.
US-traded West Texas Intermediate crude was similarly up to $91.90 a barrel after also hitting a seven-year high.
Both indicators were on course for a seventh consecutive weekly gain.
“The latest rally was triggered by a cold snap in Texas, which is fueling concerns about production disruptions in the Permian Basin, the biggest producer of shale. [gás de xisto] US,” said Carsten Fritsch, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank.
A massive winter storm swept across the central and northeastern United States on Thursday, knocking out power for thousands of people.
Strong demand and crisis between Russia and Ukraine weigh on increase
Market strategists said this week that oil prices are likely to rise above $100 because of a potential war between Russia and Ukraine. This is one of your main concerns for the markets in 2022.
“The main geopolitical risk is Ukraine,” said John Vail, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management in Tokyo. “The trend looks good overall for commodities.”
Oil prices would gain if global supply were disrupted and as demand for natural gas increases in Europe and Asia.
The end of restrictions by Covid-19 also boosts the consumption of aviation and other fuels, three strategists told the GMF (Reuters Global Markets Forum).
Bjarne Schieldrop, SEB’s chief commodities analyst in Oslo, said oil in equivalent terms already looks “cheap” compared to natural gas.
Invesco’s global market strategist, based in Hong Kong, David Chao, predicted that oil prices could rise by 10% to 15%.
“This would put tremendous upward pressure on inflation in Western countries, which would force many major central banks to preemptively raise interest rates,” Chao said.
Nikko’s Vail believes central banks will have a hard time controlling rising inflation and expects the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates seven times this year.
Source: Folha
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