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BC’s errands
The minutes of the last Copom meeting, released this Tuesday (8), were full of messages for the market and the government. At last week’s meeting, the BC had raised the Selic to 10.75% per year.
Understand: the monetary authority has indicated that it will make at least two more hikes in the basic interest rate, and that it may go to a level above 12%.
Before the minutes, the market was projecting an increase of 1 percentage point at the next meeting and another 0.25 pp at the May meeting. A reduction of 0.25 pp would take place in December, with the Selic ending 2022 in 11.75%according to the Focus bulletin.
In errands for the government, the BC warned that fiscal policies that reduce inflation in the short term could have a negative effect on the exchange rate and on inflation expectations. In that case, it would be necessary to raise the interest even further.
Despite not mentioning the proposals that are under discussion in the government and in Congress, the minutes were read as a message for the PECs that intend to cut taxes on fuel in an election year.
On target: the Fuels PECs – one of them classified as kamikaze by the economy – were also targets of criticism from large investors. The chief economist of the manager Verde Asset, Daniel Leichsenring, said that the proposal equals the governments of Bolsonaro and Dilma from an economic point of view.
In Congress, the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira, defends that the project that freezes the ICMS on fuels be approved before starting discussions on the PECs.
Historic Bitcoin seizure in the US
The US announced on Tuesday that it had recovered more than 94 thousand bitcoins that were stolen in 2016. With current value of $3.6 billion (R$ 19 billion), this is the biggest financial seizure in the country’s history.
Understand: In 2016, a hacker broke into the systems of the Hong Kong-based Bitfinex platform and stole almost 120 thousand bitcoins of its customers, valued at the time at US$ 71 million (R$ 374 million).
US officials said 25,000 of those cryptos were diverted to online accounts opened by a couple to buy gold and NFTs. The two, suspected of laundering stolen bitcoins, face up to 20 years in prison.
why it matters: The historic apprehension is yet another sign that authorities’ competence to track cryptocurrencies has grown along with its popularity.
This evolution is important to track not only thefts, but also scams such as ransomware, where hackers demand the payment of the ransom for cryptocurrencies.
EU wants to nationalize chips
The European Commission proposed, this Tuesday (8), to release 43 billion euros (R$ 258.8 billion) to promote the local semiconductor chip industry.
These components are essential for technology products, from computers to cars.
What explains: the dependence on Asia for the supply of these inputs was wide open with the pandemic, which brought a great demand for electronics. The result is that factories around the world have had to reduce their production – or even stop, in the case of automakers – for lack of chips.
in numbers: today with about 9% of global production, the European Union wants to reach 2030 with the participation of 20% in the world semiconductor market, which moved almost 600 billion euros (R$ 3.6 trillion) last year.
Subsidies: the project still needs to be approved by the member countries of the bloc and by the European Parliament.
Most of the resources would go to industries in the sector that want to invest in Europe. Another slice would finance research on the development of technology and a smaller part would go to support startups in the sector.
Is here? Brazilian industries were also affected by the lack of chips, mainly automotive. In November last year, the Minister of Communications, Fábio Faria, invited Elon Musk to create a semiconductor industry in the country.
The decision contrasts, however, with the decision to liquidate Ceitec, the only semiconductor manufacturer in Latin America.
Cbios soar and put pressure on fuels
The price of carbon credits in the fuel sector, the Cbios, has already risen 34% this year, putting additional pressure on gasoline and diesel prices in the country.
Understand: they began trading in 2020, in a government plan to shift funds from the sale of fossil fuels to encourage renewable energy production.
Under the program, distributors buy Cbios from ethanol and biodiesel producers to offset the emission of pollutants in the consumption of gasoline and diesel. Each Cbio is equivalent to the emission of one ton of carbon into the atmosphere.
In numbers: in the second, the average price of Cbio reached BRL 78.79almost double the 2021 average, of BRL 39. With credit approaching R$80, the market calculates that the impact on fuel prices will be around BRL 0.06 per liter.
Dispute: the rise in prices worries distributors, who see the reduction in the supply of securities as a factor of pressure on quotations. The market estimates that approx. 12 million of Cbios have already been issued in 2022, but only 7 million were offered to distributors.
According to the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy), 7.5 million Cbios have already been traded in 2022, equivalent to 20.9% the target set for the year.
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