See savings, Treasury and CDB yield with the rise in Selic

Fixed income investments maintain a positive return for investors with the hike in the basic interest rate this Wednesday (16), according to calculations by financial search engine Yubb. The Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) of the Central Bank of Brazil increased the Selic rate by 1 percentage point, to 11.75% per year.

Despite the growth of the country’s official interest rates, Yubb’s projections show that the advance of inflation expectations reduced the possibilities of fixed income gains compared to the last time the Copom raised interest rates, on February 2nd.

This disadvantage is a result of the increase in inflation expectations from the Central Bank’s Focus survey, which rose from 5.38% to 6.45% in this interval.

The rise puts pressure on real income, which is the gain after discounting the IPCA (Consumer Price Index). Savings, for example, started to have a negative return of 0.26% per year. Before, it was positive at 0.75%. The real yield of the Selic Treasury fell from 2.98% to 2.70%. The CDB in medium-sized banks increased from 5.41% to 4.01%.

With the best return among simulated investments, incentivized debentures no longer had a projected return above double digits. The estimated real income increased from 10.16% to 6.42% per year.

For the simulation of the CDB of medium-sized banks, the survey considered a yield of 116% of the CDI. For the product offered by large banks, the rate applied was 79%.

CDI or DI rate is the average index of short-term loan contracts negotiated exclusively between banking institutions. Despite taking the Selic as a reference, the DI rate fluctuates daily, according to market expectations about the cost of credit.

Although incentivized debentures appear in the survey alongside fixed income products aimed at people with a conservative investment profile, these investments are considered riskier.

Whoever buys this type of security on the capital market is, in practice, lending money to the company that issued the paper. In return, the investor receives interest. The risky part of the investment is precisely in the ability of the issuing company to honor its commitment.

Bernardo Pascowitch, founder of Yubb, highlights that the process of raising interest rates, which was already underway in Brazil, is gaining strength as a tool to control inflation, even more pressured due to the war between Russia and Ukraine.

“The international scenario has worsened in recent weeks due to the war in Ukraine, which has directly impacted the most important commodity in modern economies, oil. of global prices.”

According to Christiano Clemente, chief investment officer at Santander Private Banking, the new Selic rate increases even more the attractiveness of fixed income.

In particular, he adds, in the case of securities that offer investors protection against inflation, such as Treasury IPCA public securities traded on the Tesouro Direto online platform.

IPCA Treasury papers maturing in 2026 had a yield of 5.62% this Wednesday (16), while bonds for 2035 paid a real interest rate of 5.86%.

CRIs (Receivable Real Estate Certificates), CRAs (Agribusiness Receivables Certificates) and infrastructure debentures that pay real interest, and are exempt from IR (Income Tax), are also cited among the preferences within fixed income at this time.

Data from the Ministry of Economy show that incentivized debenture issuances reached R$ 3.5 billion in January, in operations aimed mainly at the energy, transport, sanitation and telecommunications sectors.

The average remuneration of the debentures was IPCA plus 6.1% of real interest, with a term of around 11 years.

“With the conflicts in Ukraine and the impacts on commodity prices, we believe it is prudent to have some protection against inflation in our portfolios,” says Clemente.

In relation to the stock market, the executive states that it is necessary for the investor who is used to stocks to be prepared to face days of intense volatility, in the face of countless uncertainties both in the external scenario, with the war in Ukraine and the rise in interest rates in the United States, as in Brazil, with elections at the end of the year.

In any case, he says that he has advised clients to maintain some allocation on the stock exchange, in a space of around 10% of portfolios, in order to capture eventual price rises.

In the portfolio recommended for March, analysts at Santander Corretora indicated a preference for securities from commodity exporters, such as Vale, Petrobras, Suzano and JBS. The banks Itaú and BTG Pactual are also part of the group.

“With the rise in commodity prices, sectors such as agribusiness end up benefiting, but our expectation is that the shares on the stock exchange continue under intense volatility in general”, says Tatiana Nogueira, economist at XP.

On the other hand, continues the specialist, companies in the consumer and retail sector, such as companies in the clothing sector, tend to be among the most negatively affected by the scenario of rising prices of raw materials and costs to run the operation.

She recalls that the rise in the Selic rate, and the prospect that interest rates will remain at high levels throughout the year, contract a lower growth in economic activity and make it difficult to pass on prices to consumers, even in an environment of still pressured inflation. .

“Since the last Copom meeting [no início de fevereiro]we have seen a much worse outlook for inflation, with commodity prices soaring since Russia invaded Ukraine,” says Tatiana.

In the Focus report, the median of the projections of economists consulted by the BC points to an IPCA (Ample National Consumer Price Index) of 6.45% in 2022, compared to 5.50% four weeks ago.

However, despite the more pressured inflation, even in the consumer sector it is possible to find options that should present a more resilient performance than the market average, says the XP economist, citing pharmaceutical companies as an example, as well as food companies. who work in wholesale.

“Investments in variable income should not be left aside, since it is precisely in periods of crisis and higher interest rates that great opportunities arise”, says Paloma Brum, an analyst at Toro, adding that investment in stocks needs to be dosed according to the risk tolerance of each investor, as well as its availability of capital in the long term, in view of the volatility of risk assets.