Northeast has slower resumption of occupation in the labor market

After the impact caused by the pandemic, the recovery of the level of job vacancies occurred at a slower pace in the Northeast, indicate data from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).

The region is the only one of the big five in the country where the employed population is still slightly below the pre-coronavirus level. The indicator measures the number of people with some type of work.

In the fourth quarter of 2021, the employed population in the Northeast was estimated at 21.481 million people. Despite having grown compared to 2020, the number is 1.2% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019, before the health crisis.

At the time, the employed population in the Northeast was 21.744 million. In other words, 263,000 jobs were closed within two years.

The data are part of the Continuous Pnad (Continuous National Household Sample Survey). The most recent edition with a breakdown of major regions is for the fourth quarter of 2021.

Pnad monitors both the formal job market, with a formal contract or CNPJ, and the informal job market, which includes the popular odd jobs.

Economist Janaína Feijó, from FGV Ibre (Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas), produced a survey with microdata from Pnad that points out possible factors for the slower recovery in the Northeast.

According to the researcher, workers with a lower level of education – often associated with informal jobs or with lower wages – felt the arrival of the pandemic more and have not yet fully returned to the market.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, before Covid-19, the Northeast had 9.908 million employed people without completing high school. In the fourth quarter of 2021, that number was about 5% lower at 9.388 million.

Meanwhile, the employed population of workers with high school or higher education has already managed to return to the pre-pandemic level.

This situation is not exclusive to the Northeast. It also occurred in other regions. The issue is that workers with fewer years of schooling represent a larger share of the employed population in the Northeast, compared to other locations, indicate the microdata.

Professionals without complete secondary education accounted for 43.7% of the entire employed population in the region in the fourth quarter of last year. It is the highest percentage in the country.

“The resumption of the employed population has occurred more slowly, so far, in the Northeast. The data show that most of the most vulnerable people left the job market and have not yet returned”, says Feijó, who is from Ceará.

In the North region, the total employed population rose 3.9% between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the same period of 2021. It went from 7.493 million to 7.784 million.

The Midwest, in turn, had an increase of 1.3% — from 7.934 million to 8.038 million.

The South and Southeast, which concentrate the largest employed populations in the country, registered lower variations.

In the South, there was a slight increase of 0.3% (from 15.257 million to 15.303 million). The Southeast, on the other hand, had a variation of 0.1% (from 43.086 million to 43.143 million).

Six states remain below pre-crisis

In the cut of the federation units, Pnad statistics indicate that six states have not yet fully recovered the pre-pandemic level of the occupied population. Four are in the Northeast.

In proportional terms, Ceará and Paraíba are the most distant places from the interval that preceded Covid-19.

In them, the employed population in the fourth quarter of 2021 was still 7.1% and 6.6% below the same quarter of 2019, respectively.

Pernambuco (-4.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (-2.5%), Piauí (-1.3%) and Minas Gerais (-0.9%) also had not fully recovered the level of job vacancies.

In Ceará, the employed population was 3.790 million people in the fourth quarter of 2019. In the same interval of 2021, the group that was working was estimated at 3.522 million.

In other words, there was a loss of 268 thousand jobs in this comparison, a number corresponding to a 7.1% decline.

In the view of economist Vitor Hugo Miro, professor at the UFC (Federal University of Ceará), a combination of factors can explain the local situation.

In 2021, recalls Miro, Ceará went through a period of resurgence of the pandemic, which forced the maintenance of restrictions on economic activities.

The health crisis made the reopening process difficult and may have delayed the resumption of occupation, says the economist.

“The reopening may have occurred more slowly than in other states, with impacts on the job market”, he points out.

According to him, the transfer of income via social programs, such as emergency aid, paid between 2020 and 2021, minimized the damage generated by Covid-19 and may also have postponed the return to the market.

In Paraíba, the employed population dropped from 1.489 million in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 1.391 million in the same period in 2021. The 6.6% drop is equivalent to 98 thousand fewer jobs in this comparison.

“With the pandemic, restrictive measures were extended. Another factor with an impact on the local job market is the national economic situation”, evaluates economist Werton Oliveira, from the consultancy Ekonomy and Sinduscon-JP (João Pessoa Civil Construction Industry Union). ).

“The low income of the population and the general rise in prices in the country affect sectors that employ a lot, such as commerce”, he adds.

Resume amid risks in 2022

In the view of Janaína Feijó, from FGV Ibre, there is a prospect that the employed population will return to pre-pandemic level in 2022 in states and regions where this has not yet occurred.

The momentum may come from the effects of the reopening of the economy, but that does not mean that the scenario is risk-free, according to her.

Projection of low performance of economic activity in Brazil, uncertainties of electoral race and impacts of war in Ukraine are factors pointed out as possible obstacles to a more consistent recovery.

“2022 is also a year of turmoil. There are uncertainties. This affects the job market and job creation”, he says.

According to Pnad, 21 units of the federation have already reached a level of employed population above the pre-pandemic level.

The indicator for Alagoas, unlike the average for the Northeast region, increased by 16.3%, from 1.028 million to 1.196 million people. It was the biggest increase in percentage terms between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the same period of 2021.

In the sequence, appear Roraima (9.7%), Acre (8.9%) and Tocantins (5.6%). São Paulo, the most populous state, had an increase of 0.6% in the total number of employed persons.