Almost 1/3 of the unemployed have been looking for a job for at least 2 years

The difficulties intensified by the pandemic have raised the proportion of unemployed Brazilians who have been looking for work for at least two years to a record level.

In the fourth quarter of 2021, the most recent period with available data, 30.3% of the total unemployed in the country were looking for vacancies for at least 24 months.

In absolute terms, this means that 3.6 million out of a universe of 12 million unemployed tried to enter the job market, without success, for two years or more.

It is the first time that the percentage breaks the 30% barrier in the Pnad Contínua (Continuous National Household Sample Survey). The numbers were compiled by the consulting firm IDados, at the request of sheet.

The Pnad historical series, carried out by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), began in 2012.

In the fourth quarter of that year, the long-term unemployed (1.3 million) represented 18.6% of the total contingent in search of work in Brazil (6.7 million).

The pandemic began to cause restrictions in the country at the end of the first quarter of 2020. Thus, it made it difficult for those who were already out of work before the crisis to search for jobs, according to economists.

“People who went into unemployment before the pandemic are having more difficulty leaving. There is too much impact from the crisis for the number to have gone up”, says researcher Bruno Ottoni, from IDados.

“It is a very bad situation for the worker. The longer he remains without a job, the more difficult it is to return to the market. When hiring, the employer usually gives preference to those who have been unemployed for less time”, he adds.

Economist Ely José de Mattos, a professor at the PUCRS Business School (Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul), follows the same line.

“The pandemic deepened the difficulties. The crisis increased the number of unemployed and the competition for vacancies. Those who have been unemployed for a longer time feel more”, he points out.

Aida Herminio dos Santos, 63, has been out of work for two years. Before the health crisis, the resident of Nova Iguaçu (RJ), in Baixada Fluminense, took care of the elderly in family homes, a role she had already performed in a shelter in Rio.

With the onset of the pandemic and restrictions on economic activities, opportunities disappeared for Aida from March 2020.

“I stopped working at that time, when they started to isolate people over 60 years old. I couldn’t get anything else. Neither cleaning, nor caregiver jobs”, he laments.

Due to the crisis, Aida says she has come to depend on income from social programs and donations to survive. Her partner, she reports, is also looking for a job.

“There’s no money left even for cooking gas. The way out is the wood stove”, he says.

Aida wants to return to the job market at all costs. She says she loves the task of taking care of people, but she doesn’t rule out migrating to other functions – she mentions that she has also sought, in the pandemic, a job in a supermarket.

“What I want most is to work. I want to have a normal life again. I have always been an independent woman. I have always pursued it, but with the pandemic, the situation has become very difficult”, she says.

Women and blacks form the majority

According to microdata from Pnad Contínua collected by IDados, women represented 62.6% (almost 2.3 million) of the total number of Brazilians facing long-term unemployment in the fourth quarter of 2021 (3.6 million). Men (almost 1.4 million) corresponded to the remaining 37.4%.

The IDados survey also points out that blacks form the majority of the long-term unemployed.

Between October and December of last year, they were 63.9% (2.3 million) of the unemployed who had been looking for work for at least two years. Whites (almost 1.3 million) represented 35.4%.

In terms of education, the largest share is that of workers with secondary education. They corresponded to 50.8% of the long-term unemployed (1.8 million out of a total of 3.6 million), according to microdata.

According to IBGE statistics, a person aged 14 or over is considered unemployed when he/she does not have a job and continues to look for opportunities. Pnad evaluates both the formal market, with a formal contract or CNPJ, and the informal market, which includes the popular jobs.

In the transition from the third to the fourth quarter of 2021, the number of unemployed for two years or more even fell by 6.5% in absolute terms. It went from 3.9 million, a record in the historical series, to 3.6 million.

However, as their proportion in relation to the total number of unemployed people has increased, there is a sign that the resumption of job creation for this group has been slower, say economists.

“The situation improved in general from the third to the fourth quarter of last year, but the improvement was more expressive for other groups, for those who were unemployed for less time”, evaluates researcher Bruno Ottoni, from IDados.

Weak GDP plays against reaction

Economists say that the most consistent recovery of the labor market depends on the growth of economic activity.

The problem is that forecasts signal poor performance for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2022, in a scenario of persistent inflation and high interest rates.

“It is likely that long-term unemployment will fall, but it is difficult for this indicator to change very quickly. For that, we would need stronger economic growth”, analyzes Ottoni.

According to the Central Bank’s Focus bulletin, the financial market forecasts a slight increase of 0.5% for this year’s GDP.

“Growth projections have cooled down with inflation and high interest rates in the country. This combination tends to slow down the job market”, says economist Ely José de Mattos, a professor at PUCRS.

“I don’t think we’re going to have a new cycle of unemployment, but the resumption must be postponed.”

The population’s perception of the labor market, however, has recently worsened. According to a Datafolha survey in March, 50% of Brazilians believe in an increase in unemployment, while 20% believe in a decrease.

In December, the contingent that predicted a rise in unemployment and the portion that projected an improvement in the indicator were tied, with 35% for each.