Professor Vana Papaevangelou considers the pessimistic version that the new Omicron variant to be so serious that it cannot be treated with the existing vaccines, in an interview with the Athenian and Macedonian News Agency, unlikely. If this happens “we go back to March 2020, but having in our hands the know-how of vaccines that, according to the pharmaceutical industry, can be released within 90-100 days. In this case, however, depending on the spread of the virus in the community and the resilience of the health systems, additional measures will have to be decided “, he points out.
He believes that the existing vaccines – in terms of the Omicron mutation – “will continue to offer significant protection against serious disease and death”, but this can be said with confidence – as he emphasizes – in a few weeks from today.
Optimism that Omicron is causing milder disease than Delta
The first data from South Africa indicate that the Omicron variant is associated with a milder disease compared to the Delta, the pediatric professor points out and continues: “But we need more clinical data before we draw safe conclusions. “Our optimism also stems from the knowledge of evolutionary virology that, because the virus wants to continue to spread, it prefers to let ‘patients’ survive in order to infect more people.”
From our previous experience with the Delta mutation and according to the ECDC forecast, it is predicted that the Omicron mutation will prevail in Europe in the next two to three months, explains pediatric professor Vana Papaevangelou and adds that “the only way to reduce the chances of new major mutations emerging are universal vaccination. “
When will we know if Omicron causes more frequent re-infection in those who are already ill?
However, he says, the observation that the possibility of re-infection with the “Omicron” variant of patients who had been infected with an older strain of the virus (originally from Wuhan, Beta or Delta) is threefold “causes great concern as it involves new outbreaks due to wall reduction. immunity. That, of course, is an initial assessment that remains to be verified. “
However, in case these data are confirmed, “it is necessary for all those who became ill and neglected to be vaccinated, as they considered themselves protected from natural immunity, to run to make an appointment for a vaccine”, points out Ms. Papaevangelou.
Omicron seems to be very contagious
The first epidemiological data from South Africa show that the “Omicron” variant is very contagious, as this country is experiencing an exponential increase in new cases in recent days, he stressed, while commenting on the climate of optimism that we end the pandemic after vaccination, states: “We were unfortunate that the relaxation of Personal Protection Measures, worldwide, coincided with the emergence of the Delta variant, which resulted in a significant increase in cases in the middle of summer.”
Where there are unvaccinated we will continue to see outbreaks
She hints that any forecast for the future is risky, but says that “in areas and societies where a significant percentage of the population remains unvaccinated, we will continue to see significant outbreaks.” Finally, he strongly disagrees with the view that you do not vaccinate at the peak of the pandemic, as the virus becomes stronger and points out that “the extension of vaccination and the administration of a booster dose of vaccine significantly reduces the” chances “of the virus being transmitted”.
The full text of the interview of pediatric professor Vana Papaevangelou to Michalis Kefalogiannis and the Athenian and Macedonian news agency is as follows:
Q: From the beginning of the pandemic, most experts had predicted the appearance of mutations in the new virus. Do you share the view of some that “at the height of a pandemic you do not vaccinate because you make the virus stronger”?
AP: I disagree with this view. On the contrary, in the peak phase of the pandemic, vaccination must be intensified as increasing the vaccination coverage of the population will reduce further dispersal in the community. Vaccines are known to protect against serious disease but do not offer complete sterile immunity, ie they do not always prevent infection. However, there is clear evidence that the higher the immune response, the lower the risk of infection. Therefore, the extension of the vaccine but also the administration of a booster dose significantly reduces the “opportunities” of the virus to be transmitted.
Q: Was there any rush by some of your colleagues, here and abroad, to talk about ending the pandemic by spring? Maybe this view led to complacency?
AP: The truth is that many predictions about the end of the pandemic have been refuted to date. We now know that the virus will continue to be with us for many years and the most likely scenario is that it will cause endemic outbreaks, as the flu does. However, in areas and societies where a significant percentage of the population remains unvaccinated, we will continue to observe significant outbreaks. The sense of security and optimism that the vaccine offered, both at the individual and population level, certainly contributed to the relaxation of PPE compliance. We were unlucky that the relaxation of PPE, worldwide, coincided with the emergence of the Delta variant, which resulted in a significant increase in cases in the middle of summer.
Q: What do we know so far about the Omicron variant? Is it broadcast as much as Delta or more?
A: The first epidemiological data from South Africa show that the “Omicron” variant is very contagious as this country is experiencing an exponential increase in new cases in recent days. This observation is in line with our knowledge of evolutionary virology, which argues that the goal of virus mutations is to create strains with greater transmissibility. We will have to wait a few days until we can answer this question with more certainty.
Q: Scientists claim that Omicron’s rapid spread is also due to its ability to re-infect people who have taken Covid-19 in the past. This study from South Africa shows that the new strain is associated with almost three times the number of re-infections compared to previous epidemic waves. What effect will this have on the course of the pandemic?
A: Indeed, the new data suggest that the probability of re-infection with the “Omicron” variant of patients who had been infected by an older strain of the virus (Wuhan original, Beta or Delta) is three times higher. This observation is of great concern as it involves the eruption of new cases due to the reduction of the immune wall. This, of course, is an initial assessment that remains to be verified. However, if these data are confirmed, it is necessary for all those who became ill and neglected to be vaccinated, as they considered themselves protected by natural immunity, to run to make an appointment for a vaccine. Many studies have shown that the immunity offered by vaccination outweighs the protection achieved after illness.
Q: Do the first indications of the morbidity caused by Omicron leave a window of optimism that it will result in a relatively mild illness or even similar to the one caused by Delta?
A: The first data from South Africa indicate that the Omicron variant is associated with a milder disease compared to the Delta. But we need more clinical data before we can draw safe conclusions. Our optimism also stems from the knowledge of evolutionary virology that, because the virus wants to continue to spread, it prefers to let “patients” survive in order to infect more people.
Q: Once Omicron was identified, how long does it take for the prevailing variant of the virus to be prevalent in our country and in Europe in general?
AP: Once the initial view is confirmed that this is a variant with greater transmissibility, it is certain that it will prevail. It is not easy to estimate what will happen as the time it will take for the new variant to prevail clearly depends on the behavior of all of us. From our previous experience with the Delta mutation and according to the ECDC forecast, it is predicted that the Omicron mutation will prevail in Europe within the next two to three months.
Q: Can a first assessment be made that the existing vaccines are to some extent effective for Omicron, that is, do they help to prevent serious illness or even death? Will you ever be able to say this with confidence and what do you say to those who are not vaccinated with the argument “since we constantly have mutations that vaccines may not catch, why should I be vaccinated since I am not protected”?
A: According to the first epidemiological data from South Africa and the literature on influenza, it is estimated that vaccines against COVID-19 will continue to offer significant protection against serious disease and death. Although it is possible to reduce their effectiveness in preventing infection it will take a few more weeks until we reach safe conclusions. In response to those who argue against vaccination due to the appearance of new mutations, I would explain that as long as the vaccination coverage is not high enough, as long as we do not manage to build the so-called “immune wall”, we allow the virus to spread and evolve. The only way to reduce the chances of new major mutations emerging is through universal vaccination.
Q: If this new variant proves to be more serious than it first appears and the vaccines prove powerless to stop it, what will be the solutions? New vaccines and lock down?
AP: This is the most pessimistic version that I find unlikely. In this case we go back to March 2020 but having in our hands the know-how of vaccines that, according to the pharmaceutical industry, can be released within 90-100 days. In this case, however, depending on the spread of the virus in the community and the resilience of the health systems, additional measures will need to be decided.
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