(News Bulletin 247) – First of all, it should be noted that despite the public holiday nature of the day (August 15, Catholic feast of the Assumption), the Paris market will be open, under the usual conditions of hours and quotation. . However, we should expect a level of activity, measurable by volumes, rather timid for this first session of the week, while many operators are on vacation and the calendar is almost deserted.
The CAC 40 index (+0.14% on Friday) aligned a sixth week of rise in rank, with the support of a rather encouraging indicator on American consumption, the main engine, structurally, of the growth of its economy.
A better-than-expected improvement in US consumer sentiment closes a series of indicators deemed reassuring on inflation in the United States. The statistic of the day shows a marked improvement in the morale of American households in August to 55.1 points, due to the prospects for improvement on the inflation front, in particular among low and middle income consumers for whom the inflation is particularly important. A clearing which contrasts with the statistics for the month of June which had then reached its historic low.
On the values ​​side, the bank and the automobile have managed to climb into positive territory, like certain representatives such as Stellantis (+ 1.10% to 14.842 euros), Société Générale (+ 1.54% to 23.71 euros), or BNP Paribas (+ 1.77% to 50.43 euros).
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices continued their summer rise, like the Dow Jones (+1.27% to 33,761 points) and the Nasdaq Composite (+2.09% to 13,047 dots). The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 1.73% to 4,280 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0240. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $91.20.
To follow as a priority on the statistical agenda this Monday, the manufacturing index Empire State at 2:30 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The bullish engulfing structure of July 19, very clear, and marked in addition by an overshoot of the moving average, the formation of a marubozu, was followed by a consolidation in a pennant, on the upper part of his body. Technically, the short-term bullish message was fully reinforced, with a subsequent confirmation: the upward crossing of the 20-day moving average on its 50-day counterpart, which had not happened since the 24 December 2021. The current challenge is a sustained breach of resistance at 6,550 points. The characteristics of the crossing, in particular in terms of volatility and volumes, will support its credibility if necessary.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index quotes above the support at 6248.00 points.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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