(News Bulletin 247) – The CAC 40 index will have stood still on Tuesday (-0.07% to 7,132 points), pending the intervention (after closing) of the boss of the Fed during an organized event By the Economic Club of Washington, DC Clear opportunity to provide some clarification after last week’s tepid FOMC (see below).
“Even though the global economy is slowing down, central banks are tightening the reins of monetary policy again, as long as inflation remains a concern. As a result, inflation should start to slowly fade.”, act Laurent Gorgemans, Global Head of Investment Products at Nordea Asset Management. “We are also starting to see the first signs of this in the United States. Base effects, the impact of Fed and ECB policies, and the anticipation of lower oil prices should reinforce this phenomenon in the coming months.”
In the statistical chapter yesterday, operators learned of a record deficit in the French trade balance in 2022, even if luxury, spirits and aeronautics have never done so well for export. In question, of course, the increase in the price of hydrocarbons.
On the stock side, BNP Paribas gained 2.6% after raising its targets for 2025 and deciding to buy back 5 billion euros of its own shares this year. In its wake, Societe Generale, which will publish its accounts on Wednesday, advanced by 2.2% while Crédit Agricole will unveil its results on Thursday. The oil sector is driven by the rebound in black gold but also by the record results of Britain’s BP, which rose by nearly 8% on the London Stock Exchange. TotalEnergies, which will publish its results on Wednesday morning, won 3.4%, Vallourec gained 2.6% while CGG advanced 6%. But it was Renault that achieved the best performance in the CAC 40 with an increase of 4.4%. The market integrates the announcements and the speeches of the leaders occurred Monday morning at the time of a conference on the recasting of the Alliance Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi.
In the lower section, we find Carrefour (-5%) weighed down by a deterioration on the part of Exane BNP Paribas to “underperformance”. Casino for its part sold 3.6%
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended in green territory, after the intervention of J Powell, who ultimately did not upset operators during his intervention at an event organized by the Economic Club of Washington, DC, highly anticipated after a somewhat lukewarm FOMC at the heart of last week. The boss of the Fed will not have finally hardened the tone, in spite of very important tensions on employment. The Dow Jones gained 0.78% to 34,156 points and the Nasdaq Composite 1.90% to 12,113 points. The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 1.29% to 4,164 points. The Chairman of the Fed referred to the 517,000 job creations in the private sector in January, while pointing out the lack of excitement on the wage front.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0730. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $77.50.
To follow as a priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, the dynamics of wages in the private sector in France at 8:45 a.m. and across the Atlantic: wholesaler stocks at 4:00 p.m. and oil stocks at 4:30 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Despite the alert that sounded yesterday, the index “holds” for the time being, above the symbolic 7,000 points, which serves as a basis for intermediate technical support. Above this symbolic threshold, a consolidation can take place without jeopardizing the short-term bullish bias. Below, another serious safeguard is that of the 50-day moving average (in orange), bullish since the beginning of November 2022.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7422.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7000.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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