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The CAC 40 index took the lift yesterday, before turning downwards during the session, to end at its opening levels, managing to maintain a 0.52% gain, at 7,250 points, on a background of hope for a break from the Fed in its monetary process. It is this week that the initiatives will be able to settle, as the Fed completes a new meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday, and the ECB completes its Board of Governors on Thursday.
“The status quo is expected after several FOMC members floated the idea of ​​a pause in June to allow time to observe more macroeconomic data, before a potential new rise in July even if this could disturb the message from the Fed”, says Thomas Giudici, head of bond management at Auris Gestion.
The Fedwatch tool, developed by CME Group, allocates a probability of 74.8% of a status quo on the remuneration of Fed Funds, within a limit of between 5 and 5.25%.
“A surprise cannot therefore be ruled out, as shown by the central banks of Canada and Australia. Bad news during Wednesday’s FOMC could have significant consequences on the US equity markets which have experienced a good course in recent weeks in good part due to the euphoria aroused by artificial intelligence.”
In terms of values, tech has notably picked up steam with Teleperformance (+3.9%) Capgemini (+3.1%) and STMicro (+3%) in the wake of the good performance of the Nasdaq (+0.5%). shortly before the European close). Nexans (+8%) was carried by an increase in recommendation from Bank of America, which went on the purchase on the title, judging that the action constitutes the best way to play the energy transition in cables. Conversely, the Luxembourg satellite operator SES plunged (-14.6%) after the announcement of the departure of its managing director, Steve Collar.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices gained ground on Monday, like the Dow Jones (+0.56% to 34,066 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (+0.72% at 13,355 points). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.93% to 4,338 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0790. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $67.50.
On the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow in priority the consumer price indices in the United States at 2:30 p.m. The ZEW index of confidence in the German economy will be published at 11:00 am.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Around 7,200 points, the CAC is, in timid volumes, in a period of congestion, auguring a release of energy, which one, the other or both of the main monetary policy meetings of the week will be able to provoke .
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7356.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7088.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
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