(News Bulletin 247) – The video games group has gained more than 50% since the start of the year, driven by expectations around the sixth opus of the Grand Theft Auto saga. Analysts’ price targets still give it slight potential.

Take 2 managed to attract attention as rarely a video game publisher has achieved in the history of the video game industry. The company that owns the Rockstar Games studio revealed this week (a little early due to leaks on social networks) the trailer for GTA 6. The trailer also broke YouTube view records for a non-musical video. And even in the editorial office of BFMBusiness.com, discussions and debates never end on the sixth opus of the franchise started in 1997.

Remember that the trailer did not reveal that many elements, except that the player will be able to play a female character and will evolve in Vice City, the setting of the game GTA Vice City which dates from 2003. And that social networks should take a prominent place in the game.

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An increase of more than 50% in 2023

Listed on the Nasdaq, Take 2 shares suffered profit taking following the publication of this trailer. Quoted by investing.com, the Stifel bank believes that the release date may have disappointed. The trailer mentioned the year 2025, without further details, even if the publisher then explained that this horizon concerned the new generation consoles PS5 and Xbox Series S/X. However, the consensus was hoping that the game would be available for next year’s holiday season. If the game is released at the very beginning of 2025, its sales could be counted, at least in part, in Take 2’s 2024-2025 financial year, which will end in March 2025.

The fact remains that the American group has experienced a good stock market rally this year, increasing by 51.1% since January 1, to reach a capitalization which lifts the company to seventh place in the top 10 of the largest video game groups on the stock market. A performance which also allows it to outperform other pure video game players such as Electronic Arts (+13.8% since the start of the year) and Nintendo (+24.3%).

The share price was largely supported by growing expectations around release announcements GTA 6. At the beginning of November, the stock posted nine consecutive sessions of increases, for a gain of almost 14% after Take 2 announced on social networks that the trailer for the game would be revealed at the beginning of December.

This is because the franchise obviously constitutes a successful saga for the publisher, with 410 million games sold since the first GTA, including more than 190 million for GTA 5the last opus in the series, released in 2013. Only Minecraft actually did better than GTA 5 in the history of video games. Especially since in addition to the sales of games strictly speaking, Take Two manages to monetize its titles in the long term, by adding online modes and additional paid content, thus making it possible to generate income over several years.

Far from its all-time high

Given Take Two’s good stock market performance, can the video game publisher climb further on the stock market? Because after all, the company’s action remains quite far from its peak reached in January 2021 ($204), lying almost 25% below. The group may have suffered in particular from the slowdown in mobile games, while the company had spent 11 billion dollars last year to buy the specialist in the field, Zynga.

“Although the deterioration of its mobile games in 2022 took Take 2 by surprise, management is now aware of its challenges,” said Bank of America.

To return to the stock market potential of the stock, analysts generally see the stock still rising but not that much. Bank of America has a price target of $170, which gives the stock upside of 8%. Deutsche Bank and Stifel are at $175, which is an 11% spread from the current price.

The consensus compiled by investing.com is also lower at $163, or a potential of just under 4%. However, according to the site’s data, 18 analysts recommend buying the stock, five are at “neutral” and only one for sale. Perhaps some research firms will adjust their forecasts or advice to take into account last month’s stock rally…

In any case, according to Reuters, analysts estimate that GTA 6 has the potential to generate revenues of more than $1 billion per year over several years, knowing that GTA 6 has generated a total of $7.7 billion since its launch in 2013.