CAC 40: weekend on an intermediate medium

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While the CAC is positioned in the immediate vicinity of an intermediate support area, the market could find a little going this Friday, especially since the publication of American GDP, yesterday, clearly campaigned for an imminent drop in federal rates. In final data, the gross domestic product contracted 0.5%, against -0.2% in the first estimate.

The market naturally keeps an eye attentive to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

“Despite the fears of the weekend following American bombings, we saw a rapid and massive de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. A limited response from Iran, without impact on energy facilities, and American pressure opened the door to a truce between Israel and Iran”, would like to highlight Xavier Chapard, strategist at LBPAM.

“If risks persist (respect for the ceasefire, the real state of Iranian nuclear installations …), this de-escalation is favorable for the world economy,” he adds.

But an information report of the Pentagon was leaked in the press, relativizing the possible damage inflicted on nuclear installations. Questions about this nuance in the degree of effectiveness of the strikes caused Donald Trump’s ire at the opening of the NATO summit.

As a reminder last weekend, targeted strikes were ordered by the White House on Iranian nuclear sites. Surgical by their precision, but massive by their power, these strikes targeted in particular the Fordo site, at the heart of the nuclear issues of the mullahs regime. This uranium enrichment site, built nearly 100 meters underground in a mountainous region, was particularly difficult to reach.

But uncertainty remains on customs duties As the deadline of July 09 approaches, from which American imports in the EU will be surcharged. A date which could however be rejected, according to Karoline Leavitt, the spokesperson of the White House.

“While the date of July 9 approaches, negotiations on customs duties have not yet delivered its verdict. The United States wants to obtain advantageous agreements with its business partners (EU, China) and always threaten to increase the prices that will be applied to them. For lack of agreement, the markets, which had digested the initial effect of customs duties, could again know a good point from the outset “, for Grégoire Kounowski, investment advisor at Norman K.

On the values ​​side, Carrefour found itself red lantern of the CAC 40 (-7.8%), weighed down by a note from JPMorgan which warned that the distributor’s first half would not be good. Edenred (+6.3%) and Pluxee (+2.2%) were worn by The presentation of the reform of the title-restaurant which does not contain a cap of the commissions withdrawn from restaurateurs. Trigano won 5.5% after publishing his third quarter income and communicated his prospects for the rest of his exercise. On the side of automotive equipment manufacturers, Valeo resumed 2.8% when Opthobility made 4.1%, after changes in recommendations from Morgan Stanley in a sectoral note.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session of Thursday in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.94%), and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.97%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.80% at 6,141 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1690. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 65.30. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.25%. As for the Vix, it was worth 16.59 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow the PCE prices as a priority, Fed favorite measure in its appreciation of inflation at 2:30 p.m., and the American consumer confidence index (U-Mich) at 4:00 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.

The 7,900 points are reinforced in their status of graphic resistance, even though the dynamics of the relative force index invite caution. Indeed the RSI (Relative Strenght Index) Adopt a persistent lowering bias since May 13. The tricolor flagship index is now in a glaring situation of incapacity for creations of new heights.

First alert Thursday, June 12 with a metal gap in session. Second the next day with a new gap, filled in the session too. The short -term configuration is gradually weakened.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7700.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7605.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics