Why is Erdogan sitting “quietly” – Athens is on full alert

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Erdogan’s partial “inactivity” could also be explained by the fact that American, French and Italian energy giants are active in the Cypriot sea plots.

By Antonis Anzoletou

As long as August closes in conditions of low and controlled tension with Turkey, the Americans who predicted that the Tayyip Erdogan he will not pull the rope of challenges to the limit. The driller’s diplomacy, as well as the “wicks” of tension on the day of the Fifteenth of August with overflights above Kinaro, Mavra Lerou and Kandeliussa attract the attention of the armed forces, but they are a permanent and manageable tactic of Ankara.

Turkey’s annoyance with the armament policy of Greece is evident and manifests itself at regular intervals. The neighbours’ Ministry of Defense is leading the challenges and yesterday publicized via twitter its expert contacts with US officials to modernize the Viper version of the F-16. Possibly in this way and the tough rhetoric Tayyip Erdoğan compensates for his decision to move the “Abdul Hamid Khan” close to the Turkish coast at about 30 nautical miles. NAVTEX is valid until October 7th and recently the Turkey’s Energy Minister, Fatih Donmez, reported that it takes 45-60 days to complete the first well in order to have some data. The time required for research is one of the reasons why the next period is expected, barring the unexpected, to be quiet, at least in the field of the south-eastern Mediterranean. The crucial thing is whether the NAVTEX that will follow will once again exclusively concern waters under Turkish jurisdiction. It is possible that the opposition inside the country will pressure Erdogan into a tougher stance.

By inflation in Turkey hovering around 80% and the basic food items having skyrocketed, it is estimated that Erdogan did not have much room for “nationalist bravado”. Just to maintain the crisis in the region. He must have calculated, after all, that an episodic summer would probably cause a blockage of the tourist stream in his country, which is a main source of income at this time.

There is a chance that the Turkish president has chosen the drop the tones with the West at this stage? Experienced analysts do not rule it out, as Europe’s confrontation with Russia has reached a critical point and Erdogan still wants to play the role of mediator. How many electoral points would he get if he could claim that a ceasefire in Ukraine had his stamp on it? It is undoubtedly one of his goals. Of course, the “flirt” with Moscow has not stopped with the information stating that the two sides are discussing ways to facilitate Turkish payments for the supply of natural gas. If she even manages to convince him Vladimir Putin to get the “green light” to carry out a new invasion of Syria this will again create new data.

On the Greek side there is satisfaction, as they find that the tactics followed in the previous period brought results and the “bells” that the allies have rung have paid off. Erdogan’s partial “inactivity” could also be explained by the fact that American, French and Italian energy giants are active in the Cypriot sea plots.

The government and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Defense are on a wait-and-see basis, as it is clear from what the Turkish president said during the drilling rig’s departure that he is preparing something. They are also well aware that Tayyip Erdogan is now solely driven by the elections which he wants to win at any cost. The fact that Mevlut Cavusoglu has spoken about a new letter from his former country to the United Nations on the issue of the demilitarization of the Greek islands should not be taken out of the equation. At the end of September, however, the annual meeting of the leaders for the UN conference in New York will give Greece another opportunity to internationalize the Turkish provocation. In mid-October, the regular Summit will be held in Brussels where the Greek government will have made a total “fund” from the neighbors’ summer stop.

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