The illegal Turkish-Libyan memorandum and Greek hydrocarbon research: Erdogan’s stance

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The Prime Minister’s announcement to speed up the research to find the precious hydrocarbon, with which Russia is now threatening Europe, apart from the important economic dimension, also has a geopolitical

By Antonis Anzoletou

Searches for natural gas in Crete begin, in a marine area of ​​approx 40,000 square kilometers by the joint venture of the American giant ExxonMobil by 70% and Helleniq Energy. The timetable as clarified during the week is concrete. If the sites are suitable, the drilling tender will be run in the fall of 2023. In early 2025, exploratory drilling is expected to begin. and from 2027 onwards, Greece is likely to be able to produce natural gas.

The Prime Minister’s announcement to speed up investigations for finding the precious hydrocarbon, with which Russia is now threatening Europe, apart from the important economic dimension for the country, it also has a geopolitical dimension. Important achievements are being created that are also reflected through the Greek Navtex which extends south of Crete, within the Greek maritime zones and behind the median line with Libya. Many analysts are already wondering about how Turkey will react. A state that does not accept the Law of the Sea, does not recognize the legal EEZ delimitation agreements of Cyprus with Egypt and Israel, is proceeding with violations in the Aegean, while at the same time promoting the illegal Turkish-Libyan memorandum. Just yesterday, Tayyip Erdoğan recalled the recognition of the pseudo-state.

The Turkish-Libyan memorandum

The data at the moment regarding the relations that Tayyip Erdogan is developing with the African country are as follows: three years ago, at the end of November, Ankara proceeded to conclude a five-page memorandum with Tripoli with the Greek side from the first moment to denounce his illegal status. What have analysts pointed out since then?

  • Between the two states that have neither neighboring, nor even opposite coasts, such a move cannot be made. Opposite Libya are the southern coasts of Crete, not Turkey.
  • The recognized Parliament of the country, which was then based in Tobruk, has denounced the text of the government of Fages Al-Sarraj stating that it is a “flagrant violation” of the security and sovereignty of Libya. Essentially there are no two contracting parties except the Turkish Parliament which approved it and made it the law of the state.
  • The fact that the continental shelf of the Greek islands is “missing” is problematic, since apart from Crete the EEZ of Rhodes, Karpathos and Kasos is not recognized, while Kastelorizo ​​disappears from the maps.
  • The text does not make any reference to the “Treaty on the Law of the Sea”, as is required in such conventions, as Turkey in 1982 had not signed it. The reason is obvious, since it expressly provides that any island with even rudimentary economic life has a continental shelf and an EEZ.

Possible challenge from Erdogan

All the above Turkey ignores them. And for this reason, for as long as the Greek investigations last, the area will be under continuous discretionary surveillance of the navy. There is no way for Greece not to defend its rights. No one can rule out the possibility that Ankara will provoke once again. Although the specific area is far from the coast and outside the illegal Turkish-Libyan agreement, the Turkish president may be considering the scenario of proceeding with what he has announced several times: seismographic surveys in the area of ​​the illegal Turkish-Libyan memorandum, probably south of Gavdos.

In this way the targeting will be threefold: he will give substance to the signatures he made in 2019 with Libya, he will try to provoke and block the Greek investigations and at the same time he will once again “converse” with his interior in view of the crucial elections in June. Tayyip Erdogan, after all he had also been disturbed by the previous moves Athena’s. The extension of territorial waters to 12 miles in the Ionian Sea, the EEZ delimitation agreement with Italy, the partial EEZ delimitation with Egypt, but also with the agreement with Albania to appeal to the International Court of Justice in The Hague for the EEZ delimitation.

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