Elections in 2023: The lever of self-reliance is being looked at in New Democracy – How can the goal be achieved

By Antonis Anzoletou

The Prime Minister pours “water to the mill” of the elections every day with his interventions, despite the fact that his will to exhaust the four-year period is a given and is not disputed. The new debate opened by Kyriakos Mitsotakis concerns self-reliance. From London, he put the bar at 37%-38% and emphasized that it is an achievable goal for the New Democracy in the second elections. The parties have long taken up pencil and paper and calculated both their own and their opponents’ likely percentages. What is the condition that must be in place for the prime minister’s plan to come out? It all depends on the parties who will get the ticket for the Parliament.

The projection that follows is a mathematical calculation and is in no way a poll result. Small changes in percentages can make a big difference in the scenarios. As Giorgos Arapoglou, General Manager of Pulse, had explained to “KATHIMERINI”, the chances of a Parliament of four or eight parties are extremely limited. With the scenario of the five-party Parliament, the New Democracy to register a percentage of 37.4% and the parties outside the Parliament to reach 10.4%, the blue party could secure 152 seats. SYRIZA with 28.75% 83 seats, PASOK 37 seats, KKE 16 seats and Hellenic Solution 12 seats.

Things become difficult for New Democracy if the Parliament is six-party, which based on recent opinion polls is considered the most likely scenario. In the event that the Day25 enter the Parliament (all the latest measurements show that it exceeds 3%) and with a percentage outside the Parliament at 7.1%, New Democracy – if the first party emerges – would reach 148 MPs. Therefore, cooperation with another parliamentary force is imperative in the second elections. Based on the latest Pulse poll, however, the possibility of even a seven-party Parliament should not be ruled out, as the “National Greek Party” was recorded at 2.5%. This makes the path of the first party towards self-reliance even more difficult.

In order to make the necessary comparisons, the data of the last three electoral contests in relation to the percentage of parties that were left out of Parliament are useful. In January 2015 it reached 8.62% (seven-party), in September 2018 6.4% (eight-party) and in July 2019 the forces that did not pass the 3% limit reached 8.07% with the Parliament today to be six-party. With these data, the battle in the right and left “apartment building” is expected to be fierce with the two areas constantly tilting towards the political center. New Democracy wants not to lose its dominance in the middle ground that gave it victory in 2019 and SYRIZA is trying to “repatriate” the voters of 2015.

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