Pulse Poll: The difference between ND and SYRIZA is at 6.5% – What government do the voters want – The scenarios

Its difference is 6.5% New Democracy from SYRIZAaccording to the poll carried out by Pulse on behalf of SKAI.

The ruling party, 10 days before the opening of the polls, appears to be consolidating its difference to a percentage of more than 6%, covering a significant part of the losses it had after the tragedy in Tempe. Both New Democracy and SYRIZA have “bitten” half a unit upwards in their percentages, putting more and more pressure on the percentages of the smaller parties. The survey was carried out between May 4 and 7 and captures the mood shortly before the important leaders’ debate that will take place tomorrow at 21:00.

Of particular interest, in view of May 21, are the survey data for the estimate of the distribution of undecideds, which remain at a high level, representing 12% of the electorate, but also the estimate of the distribution of seats, with all scenarios, for every possible case.

After the polls… the next day

The poll starts with the question about… the next day. What do voters expect from a self-governing or cooperative government? The data highlighted by Pulse concern both the scenario of the formation of a coalition government and the possibility of not reaching an agreement and going to new elections, probably on July 2.

Mitsotakis lead in preferences for prime minister

An important question, which is posed as the main dilemma of the ballot box for May 21, is the preferences of the voters in who they want to have as prime minister.

In this specific question, Kyriakos Mitsotakis maintains a clear lead with 38%, against 27% of Alexis Tsipras and 8% of Nikos Androulakis. A significant percentage is also occupied by the answer “none”, with 20%.

At 6.5% the difference with a reduction on the valid ones

The key element of any poll is percentages. New Democracy is unquestionably first, consolidating a difference of more than 6% from SYRIZA. In this particular research, the difference in the reduction over the valid ones is 6.5%.

The first estimation scenario for undecideds and seats

The undecided vote is capable of determining the final outcome, even in its absolute numbers, as 12% of the electorate is still undecided.

The first scenario “puts” New Democracy with 120 seats in the Parliament and PASOK with 34, which means that a possible cooperation between them results in the formation of a government with 154 MPs.

However, it is noted that almost half of the undecideds have not even reached the closest and therefore, the final result may have differences.

The second scenario for undecideds and seats

In the second scenario for the possible distribution of undecideds and the distribution of seats, New Democracy enters the Parliament with 118 seats and PASOK with 35 seats. And in the second case there is a mathematical probability of forming a government, with 153 seats in total.