Metron Analysis poll: SYRIZA and ND ahead with 18.1 points

The Metron Analysis poll for MEGA shows a negative assessment of the government, reduced interest in the European elections and high support for “None”, outlining a political landscape where the government receives high rates of dissatisfaction, which is also reflected in the face of the prime minister, despite the small regrouping seen in all the parties, while the image of “dominance” of the New Democracy arises primarily from the low percentages that the opposition parties still have.

At the same time, the interest in the European elections is recorded as reduced, a very large percentage of voters are not sure about what they will vote for, the postal vote mainly concerns young people, while after the prime minister the only other politician with high popularity seems to be “nobody ».

All this reflects the political landscape in a state of flux, with the developments in SYRIZA being open, the mobilizations of various social groups continuing with unabated intensity and the landscape in terms of the political correlation of the European elections still remaining quite unclear.

All this can be seen from the poll data.

First of all, it is clear that citizens have a negative opinion of the government. The percentage of those who have a negative opinion is 59%, while the percentage of positive opinions remains low at 34%, essentially the hard core of the government’s voters. Of course, indicative of the contradictions of the situation and the great crisis of SYRIZA is the even greater rejection of the official opposition, with negative opinions reaching 86% and positive opinions being only 8%.

This climate of discontent is beginning to affect Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis himself. The positive opinions may be more than those for the government, reaching 40%, but they remain considerably less than the negative opinions which are at 54%. At the same time, the head of the official opposition, Stefanos Kasselakis, is also negatively evaluated, with 77% negative opinions and only 16% positive.

Similar are the results in the evaluation of the popularity of all political leaders.

The prime minister is generally ahead, but it is interesting that he ultimately has a negative balance of positive – negative opinions. In second place in terms of popularity is Dimitris Koutsoumbas, followed by Nikos Androulakis and Zoe Konstantopoulou. On the contrary, Stefanos Kasselakis still has the highest percentage of negative opinions at 73%.

It is interesting that, as expected, Kyriakos Mitsotakis has the strongest appeal among those who declare themselves center-right and relatively less among those who declare themselves right-wing, while Stefanos Kasselakis has the highest popularity among the center-left, since Dimitris Koutsoubas dominates the left, while Nikos Androulakis has higher popularity among center-left and centrists.

But when we come to the question of who the citizens think is most suitable as prime minister, a question other than the assessment of the role of the prime minister and the leader of the official opposition or general popularity, then only the prime minister collects a percentage of 40% , again proportional to the wider influence of the ND space, but after him the immediately most popular, with an impressive 33%, is “Kenanas”, while the rest of the political leaders are from 5% and below.

With regard to the upcoming elections, it is of particular importance that the opinion poll currently shows reduced interest. The responses indicating a great or sufficient interest in the European elections are currently at 54%, compared to 72% in May 2019. Regarding the solar distribution, it is interesting that it is mainly the forties and fifties with the least comparative interest, in contrast to the youth and older people.

Regarding the intention to participate, on the other hand, 56% answer definitely yes, considerably lower than the answers in May 2019, and probably yes 24%, while 20% answer either probably not, or definitely not. Here the age distribution is of particular interest: the comparatively least interest appears in the ages 17-42 and only above 43 does “definitely yes” become a majority. All this points to a real possibility of having particularly high abstention rates in the European elections, continuing the trend of the 2023 elections.

As for postal voting, the large majority insists on in-person attendance, with the most interesting fact being that it is mainly the youth who are more considering making use of postal voting and due to greater familiarity with remote processes.

Indicative of the fluidity currently reflected in the political landscape and in particular in representation relations are the results of the survey regarding the certainty of citizens about the party they want to vote for. Only 61% say they are absolutely or rather certain about the party they are going to vote for, while 38% say they are not so sure or even not sure at all.

Turning now to party affiliations, to the question of the limits of political influence, while the ND seems to have stable limits, PASOK shows a marginal retreat while SYRIZA regains somewhat upward momentum, although for now it lags behind the KKE in terms of its potential influence.

In terms of voting intention (spontaneous responses) for the European elections, the ND maintains the lead, mainly because the opposition remains at a low level. PASOK stabilizes in second place, but not with great momentum, SYRIZA in third place, KKE in fourth, the Hellenic Solution looks strengthened in the far-right landscape, while things look difficult for the New Left and MeRA25.

In the vote estimate made by Metron Analysis, New Democracy shows a slightly greater rally compared to January, while the same applies to SYRIZA and PASOK. The KKE recorded a small retreat, the Hellenic Solution at about the same percentage, Niki somewhat strengthened, MeRA25 and New Left currently do not seem to be able to pass the 3% threshold.

All of this is also reflected in the evaluation of voter turnout and voter movement, where, as expected, SYRIZA has the lowest turnout.