The European Union has faced a number of emergencies in recent years. The 2008 global financial meltdown that began in the United States triggered a European sovereign debt crisis that pitted the richest members of the EU against the poorest. The instability in the Middle East has sparked a refugee crisis that has fueled anti-immigrant populism in many countries in the bloc and exacerbated divisions between Brussels and Eastern European nations such as Hungary and Poland.
Then there was Brexit. Donald Trump’s election to the US presidency has created deep uncertainty in Europe as to Washington’s reliability as the continent’s security partner. Then the pandemic caused economic damage across the continent, and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine has spawned another and even greater wave of refugees, an energy crisis and fears of a new confrontation between East and West.
The election of new governments led by far-right parties in Sweden and later in Italy, the EU’s third-largest economy, has again raised questions about the EU’s strength and resilience. However, the block is stronger than ever.
How is this possible? Jean Monnet, one of the EU’s first visionaries and architects, once predicted that “Europe will be built on crisis and will be the fruit of solutions”. He was right. A crisis can (at times) create opportunities for positive change that would not have been possible without the need for a collective response. In important ways, Covid-19 and the Ukrainian War did just that.
First there is the response to the pandemic. The financial and sovereign debt crises, the migrant crisis and Brexit — all of which have helped persuade EU leaders that economic inequality breeds resentment and that the resulting dissatisfaction fuels populism. In 2020, with the support of all 27 EU member states, European countries agreed on a multi-billion euro recovery package that included funding for the Covid response and strengthening safety nets for workers and businesses.
Those packages also include incentives for investment in green technologies and regulations that require non-EU countries that want to trade with the bloc to align on technology standards or face higher taxes — strengthening European influence over global regulation. of new technologies and environmental protection.
There was also an EU budget of €1.1 billion approved for 2021-2027 that gives Brussels the means to distribute substantial amounts that its members seriously needed.
The money will still take years to fully distribute, but the unanimous emergency response has shown the value of shared sacrifice at a time when populism that prioritizes each individual country had put the EU’s future in doubt.
Covid has also shifted the balance of power in the EU’s battle with its Eurosceptic members. Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, a skilled politician who built his reputation on the confrontation with the EU, won a massive majority victory in April. It might seem that it would help him resist EU demands that he abide by the bloc’s rules on democracy and the rule of law, which he has flouted for some years.
But the European Commission has found a way to use Covid relief funds to bring Orbán into line. Last month it formally recommended that the €7.5 billion earmarked for Hungary be withheld until Budapest offers a list of required reforms.
Hungary is already facing high prices, a weak currency and an energy crisis, and its budget deficit is now much higher than the government had anticipated. Add to that €14.9 billion in much-needed donations and loans from the Covid Recovery Fund, and Brussels now has Orbán’s full attention.
The same political dynamic is present in Italy. Georgia Meloni, leader of Italy’s Brothers party and her country’s next prime minister, has waged a “culture war” against EU protections for the rights of minorities and migrants. But the country’s economic vulnerability means that promises of respect for the EU and its close government’s solid support for NATO and Ukraine will not be enough to guarantee it the unconditional support of Brussels.
Having the second highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the European Union, Italy needs the European Commission to release €200 billion from the Covid Recovery Fund and needs the European Central Bank to continue to buy its debt.
As in Hungary, weak economic growth, stubbornly high inflation and looming energy shortages leave the Italian government in need of EU goodwill, and it was the pandemic that gave the EU the economic and political clout it needed to demand fiscal reforms. and others.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine and Vladimir Putin’s threats against NATO and European governments mobilized the EU just as strongly. They created an urgent unity in Brussels’ relations with Washington that had not been present for decades. They strengthened NATO by attracting new and fit members (Finland and Sweden), persuading reluctant European governments (especially Germany) to spend much more on defense, and bringing Poland closer to consensus with the EU on many issues by highlighting the value that each side has for the other.
Most important of all, perhaps, is that Europe’s greatest security vulnerability has been its energy dependence on Russia for years. Putin has now proved to European leaders that Russia can no longer even be seen as a reliable trading partner, and the EU has taken on the tremendously complex challenge of ending this dependence.
In the short term, this will mean two exceptionally difficult years for European companies and citizens. In the long term, however, it will strengthen European security and accelerate its investments in green technologies. None of this was possible before the 24th of February. Everything is a direct result of Putin’s war.
Europe has historic challenges ahead. Strengthening its defenses, redesigning its energy architecture, controlling high inflation, bolstering weak growth, continuing to support Ukraine and dealing with an increasingly erratic, nuclear-armed neighbor in the east — all of which will test newfound strength. of Europe for years.
But the bloc’s ability not only to overcome crises, but to use them to strengthen its institutions, is the best example of successful international cooperation of the still young 21st century.
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
