This survey, the first to be released by the reference institute after the first round on October 2, which was won by Lula (48%), but with a much smaller margin than that predicted by Jáich Bolsonaro (43 %), has a margin of statistical error of ±2%.
Brazil’s centre-left former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will win the second round of Brazil’s presidential election on October 30 over outgoing far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, securing 53 percent of the vote to his opponent’s 47 percent, a Datafolha poll showed on Tuesday. the findings of which were made public yesterday Friday.
This survey, the first to be released by the reference institute after the first round on October 2, which was won by Lula (48%), but with a much smaller margin than that predicted by Jáich Bolsonaro (43 %), has a margin of statistical error of ±2%.
Polling institutes were heavily criticized after the election because they did not even come close to the percentage secured by the far-right president in the 1st round: they credited him with 37% at most.
On the eve of the election, Datafolia predicted that Lula would secure 50% of valid votes (excluding invalids and whites) and Mr. Bolsonaro 36%.
Another survey, by the IPEC institute, credited Lula with 51% of valid votes and the outgoing president with 37% before last Sunday’s first round. On Wednesday, the same institute predicted a victory for Lula in the second round with 55% to Jáich Bolsonaro’s 45%.
On election night, celebrating his performance in the first round, Mr Bolsonaro declared that we had “defeated the lies” of the polls. The far-right head of state, who has been seen heading for a heavy defeat for months, has not stopped arguing that pollsters are “lying”.
The Datafolia poll was conducted on a representative sample of 2,884 voters from Wednesday to yesterday.
The runoff is shaping up to be a tough one in the most polarized election in decades in Latin America’s largest nation, and the two rivals have been plowing the country in recent days to galvanize supporters and win over undecideds.
RES-EMP
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