Understand the causes and consequences of population decline in China

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China’s population has shrunk for the first time in six decades. Data from the National Statistics Office released on Tuesday (17) show that the country closed 2022 with 1.41 billion people, a drop of around 850,000 people compared to 2021. The drop was only expected for 2025, which denotes the speed of the Chinese demographic transition.

The result does not come as a surprise to anyone who has followed the official numbers in recent years. The one-child policy (1980-2015) contained the fertility rate for several years, going from 5.81 children per woman in 1970 to 0.9 in 2015. However, economic growth, the increase in schooling, the spread of contraceptive methods and the rising cost of raising children ended up discouraging young couples from becoming parents.

Official statistics released this week consolidate the scenario: in 2022, the number of newborns fell by about 10% compared to the previous year, to 9.56 million, equivalent to the historic minimum of 6.77 births per thousand people .

On the other side of the age pyramid, the situation is not good either. The working-age population —people between 16 and 50 years of age who are able to work— in 2022 was 62%, down 0.5 percentage points compared to 2021. Elderly people over 60 already account for 19.8%.

Why it matters: the data indicate an increasingly older China that will face difficulties in replacing its workers in the near future, with direct consequences on productivity, social security and economic growth as a whole.

No wonder, the government has been working to encourage young couples to have children, offering social benefits such as tax breaks, cash payment to parents for each new live birth and even subsidized education. In August, the National Health Commission also introduced policies to curb the number of abortions.

The measures, however, have proven to be far from necessary, and the solution to the shrinking population may lie in two factors: technological advancement (which allows machines to multiply national productivity) and the importation of foreign labor, a measure that until the is currently facing resistance from society and from the Chinese government.

what also matters

Nearly half of Chinese people have a “very unfavorable” view of the US. This is what indicates a survey conducted by the National University of Singapore, the University of British Columbia in Canada and Rice University, in the US state of Texas.

The researchers surveyed 2,083 Chinese people and asked them to rate various countries on a five-point scale, ranging from “very unfavorable” to “very favorable”. In total, 43% of respondents said they had a “very unfavorable” view of the country, while only 23% said they viewed the US as “very” or “a little favourable”.

Germany, on the other hand, came out on top in popularity, garnering 69% of “somewhat” or “very favorable” opinions. Belgium, Denmark, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and Sweden are also viewed mostly positively, while the United Kingdom attracted the sympathy of 46% of respondents. The results —published in the Journal of Current Chinese Affairs and reviewed by peers— also revealed that the United States has greater rejection among young people with a higher level of education living in large urban centers.

The Tencent Video streaming service finally launched this week the TV series based on the Chinese science fiction best seller “The Three Body Problem”.

The production, which has 30 episodes, had been ready for a long time, but had been having problems getting around China’s censorship, because the book on which it is based —signed by famous author Cixin Liu and published in Brazil by Suma publishing house— begins with a rather graphic scene at the height of the Cultural Revolution.

Screenwriters circumvented the problem: while in the original story the antagonist’s father is killed by Mao Tse-tung’s red soldiers for refusing to deny science, in the series the character makes a my fault and admits to having been carried away by Western greed.

Much anticipated by fans around the world, the series has been heralded by state media as an example of “the unique heroism of the Chinese people”. The nationalist tabloid Global Times published a long article in which it praised the plot for highlighting the appreciation of Chinese culture “for the collectivity” to the detriment of Western fiction, “centered on individualism.”

Netflix is ​​also preparing an adaptation of the work, scheduled to premiere later this year. The production has already been the subject of controversy, with five US senators demanding that it be stopped after the author of the books gave statements in support of the policy of incarcerating the Uighur Muslim ethnic minority in Xinjiang.

Keep an eye

A Peking University report released on Wednesday (18) estimated that at least 900 million Chinese have already contracted Covid since the beginning of the pandemic. The number represents 64% of the population and was presented based on data from the private sector and volumes of searches on search engines.

  • The researchers also made estimates by province: in Gansu, in the northeast, about 91% of the inhabitants would have already been infected, and in Yunnan, in the southwest, 84%.

why does it matter: Health experts expected in December that China would only reach 60% of its inhabitants infected in March, when the first wave of Covid post-reopening would begin to cool down. If the research is correct, the avalanche of people who contracted the virus could have arrived much earlier.

After being urged by the WHO, China claimed that 60,000 people had died in the country due to Covid since the beginning of December, but data from the British consultancy Airfinity estimate the death toll at 345,000 (expected to reach 1.7 million by April).

to go deep

  • Usina Cultural Energisa promotes the China Cultural Festival in João Pessoa from the 3rd to the 5th of February. The event, which has the support of the state government of Paraíba, will have dance classes, face painting, calligraphy workshops and storytelling. Information here. (free, in Portuguese)
  • Brasilia will host a great concert in celebration of the Chinese New Year on Saturday (21). The event takes place at Teatro Plínio Marcos, at 8 pm, and will be restricted to guests, but the Chinese embassy promotes a contest that will award 20 couples with invitations. (free)

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