As the Israeli armed forces begin operations in the Gaza Strip piecemeal while avoiding a frontal attack for the time being, the question arises for the next day. How the Gaza Strip will be governed politically after the expulsion of the terrorist organization Hamas, as Israel seeks? Michael Milstein, a former member of Israeli military intelligence and now a researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center, tells DW: “A quick withdrawal after the fall of Hamas would create a power vacuum that would be filled by anarchy and Islamist groups.”

Scenario 1: Israel regains military control of Gaza

A possible scenario would be Israel to regain direct military control of the Gaza Strip, as it did until 2005. A return of Israel as an occupying power could, however, trigger new outbreaks of armed resistance. Moreover, such a move would have fatal consequences for the balance in the wider region, estimates Stefan Stetter, a political scientist at the Federal Army University of Munich.

Scenario 2: Administration by the Palestinian Authority

Alternatively the Palestinian Authority could once again take over the administration of the Gaza Strip. And this scenario is judged as problematic by Israeli expert Michael Milstein, since as he estimates “we should take into account how weak and unpopular Mahmoud Abbas is”.

Scenario 3: Mixed Palestinian political administration

A better, but complex choice would be in Michael Milstein’s view a mixed Palestinian political administration: “An alternative is the creation of a new political administration that will be based on the Palestinian Authority, but also on local authorities such as mayors, heads of NGOs in Gaza, factional leaders and even the Fatah organization. In this case, regional players, such as Egypt, perhaps Saudi Arabia and the Arab Emirates, and of course the USA, should have a role and a say.”

Scenario 4: Under UN command

Theoretically the United Nations could take over the day after Hamas is defeated, states Stefan Stetter, referring to models such as Kosovo or East Timor. He adds, however, that this scenario is unrealistic for the Gaza Strip.

Scenario 5: Administration by Arab states

The political scientist Stephen Stetten finally, a different scenario is selected: “The Arab states could take over the administration of the Gaza Strip in cooperation with the Palestinian Authority,” he says, explaining: “This option would be in the interest of those Palestinians who want the two-state solution to remain on the table.”.