On Thursday at noon, in the French city of Strasbourg, the two most powerful women in Europe will face their common “moment of truth”, comments Politico.

A vote in the European Parliament will determine whether Ursula von der Leyen is re-elected president of the European Commission, a second term she so desires. It will also set the tone for the rest of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s term in office.

And it is possible that only one of the two will emerge victorious politically.

The vote to ratify von der Leyen’s reappointment as head of the EU executive comes after European leaders nominated her for another five-year term, following months of speculation and secret negotiations. And that’s when Meloni’s problems started.

Italy’s hard-right leader was sidelined by a backroom deal struck in Brussels between liberal leaders including President Emmanuel Macron of France, von der Leyen’s centrist conservatives and the Socialists of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

This enraged Meloni. It also caused von der Leyen a potential problem that is now coming into focus. While it theoretically has enough support from conservatives, liberals, greens and socialists to win Parliament’s backing on Thursday, the vote is secret, and up to 15% of MEPs expected to back it may end up not doing so.

That’s where Meloni could help: He heads the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group of MEPs, whose 78 votes could prove crucial to von der Leyen’s fate.

So far, however, Meloni has ruled out ordering her “powers” to back the German official for a second term. After what von der Leyen described as an “hour of intense talks” with the ECR team on Tuesday, it was still unclear which way they would vote. Different parties within the group, from different countries, are likely to make their own decisions.

Thursday’s vote puts Meloni “at a crossroads, where she has to make a choice that will be decisive for her own political future”, said Marco Valbrucci, a political scientist at the University of Naples Federico II. “He must either accept the opportunity to be part of the majority that expresses [υποστήριξη] in the lead [της] Commission, or stay out, which I think will be difficult for her.”

In Brussels, officials made it clear to Politico that there is no “Plan B” if von der Leyen is not re-elected. Should it fall short of the 361 votes it needs in the 720-seat parliament on Thursday, EU politics will be thrown back into chaos and confusion — at an extremely sensitive time.

With Russia’s war in Ukraine in its third year and Donald Trump advancing his campaign to reclaim the White House, stable EU leadership is widely seen as vital to the continent’s economic and political security.
Much is at stake in Rome as well.

If Meloni supports von der Leyen’s candidacy, she will cement her position as a moderate voice in European affairs. If she orders her MEPs to abstain, she risks dragging the party — and Italy — to the sidelines. But that is not all.

It is a particularly painful dilemma for Meloni because it forces her to choose between her pragmatic instincts as a national leader on the world stage and the political beliefs she has espoused for years as a politician in Italy. After all, it is only in this bond because of the kind of behind-the-scenes stitching in Brussels that she and her fellow Eurosceptics have condemned their names.

Although Meloni remains popular domestically, the Italian political scene is notoriously volatile and hesitant. Her coalition partner Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League party, has made his opposition to von der Leyen’s re-election a pillar of his foreign policy. Last week, Salvini was forced to deny media reports that he said if Meloni “votes for von der Leyen, it’s over”.

Fascist roots

Meloni’s Italy Brothers trace their origins to former fascists who emerged from the ruins of World War II, but the Italian prime minister has sought to modernize the party on a conservative model. For Valbrucci, Thursday’s vote represents “the most important moment of Meloni’s premiership so far.”
Despite political pressure from the Italian far-right, they exist solid reasons why Meloni it may decide that it is in its domestic political interest to support von der Leyen. The main reason is the perennially dangerous economic position of Italy.

Von der Leyen existed reliable partner for Meloni, confirming Italy’s compliance with the EU’s post-pandemic economic recovery plan and approving the early release of funds. Ironically, as Meloni will be well aware, a centre-left EU Commission is an essential ‘crutch’ for indebted countries like Italy.

After June’s European Parliament elections produced strong performances for far-right parties, Italy’s borrowing costs rose as investors thought the EU’s solidarity policies were less likely to continue, according to Carlo Cotaleri, a former Italian senator and senior IMF official who now directs the economic and social sciences program at the Catholic University of Milan. “When there is a crisis, Italy depends on the EU’s solidarity mechanisms,” he said.

The German politician has also shown she is flexible on issues important to Meloni’s party, such as tackling immigration, defending farmers’ interests and easing climate policy measures.

When von der Leyen met ECR MEPs on Tuesday, they welcomed these initiatives. But according to a person familiar with the talks, Meloni’s lawmakers also demanded “a radical change to the Green Deal’s climate policies,” “realistic” agricultural policies and new agreements with African countries to stem migrant departures. The Italian prime minister will also seek maximum flexibility on how Europe’s debt rules are interpreted for Italy.
Meloni’s allies have made it clear that their support will depend on von der Leyen giving them a strong position in the “new” European Commission. This means a large portfolio for the Italian Commissioner — perhaps a role in the distribution of funds, as well as the position of a vice-president or an executive vice-president in the Commission.

Whatever happens, the party is not expected to publicly announce its decision either way. But supposedly secret ballots have a way of getting out. If von der Leyen wins with a large majority, it will be obvious that Meloni saved her. In this case she can only resort to an argument prepared in advance: Instead of acting in the interests of her party, she is working to deliver “the maximum result in Italy”.