It has been a week since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine.
The Sky News asked military and defense experts to identify the key things we have learned so far – and what might happen next.
Russia was “unprepared” and “made many mistakes”
Edward Arnold, a European security expert at the Royal United Services Institute, said the Russian military was “not as modern or well-prepared as we thought it could be”, which “proved to be quite disastrous” for them.
Russian President Vladimir Putin does not seem to have trusted enough of his own people to tell the soldiers what their goals were.
When asked about Putin’s moves, US Vice President Kamala Harris said that history would show that his actions “resulted in the strengthening of NATO and the weakening of Russia”.
He believes that Russia initially reduced civilian casualties and the destruction of critical national infrastructure so that it could govern better under another regime.
Mathieu Boulegue, an Eurasian security and defense expert at Chatham House, said Russia had “made many mistakes”.
The army’s strategy of having smaller units, which move without “absolutely no support”, left them “very vulnerable to ambushes”, he said.
“After a failed first week, they are playing with what they do best, what we are starting to see in Kyiv and Kharkov: terrorist campaigns, bombings, bombings, indiscriminate ammunition to terrorize the population and quickly occupy territory,” he added.
William Alberque, a former NATO official who is now director of strategy, technology and weapons control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said he expected the country to launch air strikes for at least a week to gain control of the air before sending troops.
Another problem was that Russia used really poor communication equipment that was easily hacked, he said.
Edward Lucas, a Russian expert, said he was surprised that Russia had not cut off the internet and mobile telephony, which is now helping Ukrainians spread the word.
Putin underestimated the Ukrainian resistance
Russia was unprepared in part because of “failed cases,” according to Boulegue.
“They probably believed that the Ukrainians would just lay down their arms and stop fighting,” he said.
“They fell victim to their own narrative about the ‘justifiably defensive war’ aimed at the liberation or de-Nazi organization of Ukraine.”
Instead, Russian forces faced a Ukrainian army that has improved its capabilities since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Lukasz said.
Mr Arnold said the Ukrainians had “put up a fierce resistance” which included the arming of civilians, not just the armed forces.
Zelensky became a “war hero” but also a “unique point of failure”
This was possible because Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky still has access to a functioning communication network that allows him to deliver “Churchill” speeches to rally his people as well as other world leaders, according to Mr Lukas.
Mr Boulegue said his public image had been transformed from “a simple president” into a “war hero” who “endures Putin and fuels Ukrainian patriotism and pride”.
Instead of seeing his past as a comedian as an obligation, Mr. Arnold said it was an asset.
“He is an actor who is very good in front of a screen,” he said, adding that “his messages are very clear.”
Mr Alberque said the West believed Russia was a “ninja in the information war” because of its involvement in elections and previous disinformation campaigns – but said it was “losing the information war” to Ukraine.
“If Zelensky is either assassinated or ousted by other means, there does not seem to be anyone who can take that cloak yet,” Arnold said.
He said a key move would be to work out a succession of administration and have non-Kyiv leaders who could take over if needed.
The biggest change in the West’s attitude towards Russia in decades
Mr Lucas said the global response to the invasion was “amazing”.
“We have seen more changes in the West’s attitude towards Russia in the last five days than in the last 25 years,” he said.
Mr Arnold said there had been major “changes” to European security policies in decades – such as Germany’s 100 billion euro defense budget and aid mission, and that Sweden and Finland were no longer neutral.
What can follow
Mr Boulegue said we were likely to see a “terrorist campaign as part of Russia’s strategy of occupying cities” in the coming days.
Mr Lukas added that the escalation of violence had left “thousands more dead” and “hundreds of thousands become refugees”, putting “enormous pressure” on neighboring countries such as Moldova.
At the same time, Russians across the country “began to wonder what their sons who are in the military are doing” and the “ripples” of public protest could turn into waves.
There is already distancing and subjugation from the army, which “is clearly under a lot of pressure with very low morale,” he said.
“There is a possibility of a coup in the palace where people around Putin say, ‘We do not want to go with the boss, so let’s get the boss out,'” he said.
In fact, more political and economic pressure remains on Belarus now that it has aligned itself with Russia.
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