As of today, January 1, Russian natural gas has stopped flowing to EU states via Ukraine following the expiration of a five-year deal, effectively marking the end of a decades-long deal. Instead, Russia can still send gas to Hungary, Turkey and Serbia from the TurkStream pipeline through the Black Sea.

And despite the European Commission saying the continent’s natural gas system is “resilient and flexible” and could cope with the change, the strategic and symbolic impact for the whole of Europe it is expected to be huge.

Moscow has been transporting natural gas to Europe via Ukraine since 1991, a deal that was terminated as of 08:00 Moscow time. Although Russia has lost a significant share of the market, its president, Vladimir Putin, says that EU countries will suffer the most.

The EU has significantly reduced its gas imports from Russia since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Notably, Russian gas was less than 10% of EU imports in 2023, down significantly from 40 % reaching 2021. However, some eastern member states are still highly dependent on supplies while some EU members including Slovakia and Austria, continued to import significant quantities of natural gas from Russia.

Tensions with Slovakia

Already the Slovakia, faced supply shortfalls and the Moldova, the which is not in the EU, faces deficiencies and tensions have already begun. The end of the transit agreement has already caused irritation in the Slovakiawhich is now the main point of entry for Russian gas into the EU and earns transit fees from channeling the gas to Austria, Hungary and Italy.

Robert Fico, the country’s prime minister, said on Wednesday that there would be “drastic” consequences for EU countries, but not for Russia, Reuters reported. On Friday, Fico – who had just made a surprise visit to Moscow for talks with Putin – threatened to cut off electricity to Ukraine, prompting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accuse him of helping Putin “finance the war and weaken Ukraine”.

Poland offered to back Kiev if Slovakia cut off electricity exports – supplies that are vital to Ukraine, whose power plants are regularly attacked by Russia.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told BBC Radio 4’s Today program that there were alternative routes supply of natural gas from international markets, such as a terminal in Croatia and connections from Germany and Poland.

“These routes should be explored so that Russia does not make money from selling oil and gas to the European Union,” Sikorsky said.

Poland imports natural gas from the US, Qatar and the North Sea, he added. “As far as I understand, all countries have alternative routes,” he said.

Problems for Moldova as well

Moldova – which is not part of the EU – could also be severely affected by the end of the transit agreement. It generates much of its electricity at a power station powered by Russian gas. It also supplied its breakaway territory Transnistria supported by Russia.

However, Russian gas company Gazprom warned on December 28 that it would cut gas to Moldova on January 1 because it said it had not met its payment obligations. Dorin Recean, the prime minister of Moldova, for his part denied the alleged debt and accused Russia of using “energy as a political weapon” in a social media post. He said the move would leave Transnistria “without light and heat in the middle of winter”.

Indeed, heating and hot water were cut off in Transnistria “due to the temporary interruption of natural gas supply” at 07:00 local time (05:00 GMT) on Wednesday, energy company Tisteploenergo said on Telegram. He even urged residents to dress warmly, pack family members into a single room, hang blankets or thick curtains over windows and use electric heaters.

The temperature was expected to drop below 0C on Wednesday night. Medical facilities and hospitals were still being supplied, the company said.

Moldova’s energy minister, Constantin Borosan, said his government had taken steps to ensure a stable power supply, but called on citizens to conserve energy.

A 60-day state of emergency has been in effect in the energy sector since mid-December.

President Maya Sandu accused the Kremlin of “blackmail” possibly aimed at destabilizing her country ahead of general elections in 2025. Moldova’s government also said it offered aid to Transnistria.

The EU has found alternative sources of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the US, as well as natural gas from Norway, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In December, the European Commission presented plans to completely replace natural gas transit through Ukraine.