The West is determined to end its dependence on Russian oil and gas as soon as possible. The search for alternative sources of supply is in full swing. In the new order of things, the eastern Mediterranean is once again in the spotlight. There are good indications for large gas fields in the area. In addition, in the southern Mediterranean the conditions for the conversion of solar energy into electricity are considered ideal.
Crude oil is transported mainly by huge tankers and natural gas is transported to consumers through pipelines. The route of the pipelines has long been a major political issue.
The politicization of the pipelines is also becoming clear in the eastern Mediterranean. In this area, the EastMed pipeline is at the center of a regional power struggle with international implications. The ambitious project envisages the transport of natural gas from its sources to the offshore areas off the coasts of Egypt, Israel and Cyprus via Greece to Italy.
After the rupture with Moscow, the deck is dealt again
Earlier this year – the war in Ukraine had not yet begun – Washington abruptly withdrew its support for the ambitious plan. The so-called non paper of the Americans caused great upset, especially in Greece and Cyprus, because it overturned the energy strategy of these countries overnight. As we said, this happened in early January – so before Putin’s war. As is well known, this war brought about dramatic changes in the international relations and energy policy of the Western countries.
Earlier in the year, Americans argued for economic and environmental reasons against Eastmed, arguing that high investment in a fossil fuel project was not compatible with the needs of the climate change era.
After the rupture with Moscow, the deck is dealt again. This is especially true of energy policy and the issue of pipelines. EastMed supporters therefore see a new opportunity and launch a counterattack. Their argument includes stating that the costly pipeline would be suitable for transporting environmentally compatible hydrogen.
Let’s not laugh, apart from the aforementioned environmental and economic arguments that Washington used to bury EastMed earlier this year, the decisive reason for America’s turn was its rapprochement with Ankara. President Erdogan has never hidden that the planned route of the pipeline is a red flag for him.
The issue of sovereign rights overshadows a collaboration with EastMed
The now infamous non-paper is clearly a political concession by the Americans to Turkey – and at the same time a setback for the recently upgraded Greek-American relations.
The Eastern Mediterranean pipeline is at the heart of the Greek-Turkish conflict. A number of political factors make the task difficult. It is not just about the unresolved Cyprus issue and the fact that Ankara does not recognize the Republic of Cyprus and, consequently, does not want to formally trade with the Nicosia government. Above all, disputes over the delimitation of sovereign rights overshadow co-operation on the pipeline. The dispute had brought Athens and Ankara to the brink of war in 2020. The European Union forced Ankara to a moratorium in the eastern Mediterranean under threat of sanctions.
The war in Ukraine led to a remarkable strategic upgrade of Turkey. The big question is whether Erdogan will show restraint in the future in the eastern Mediterranean. The issue of the gas pipeline is a barometer of Turkish intentions. Ankara is dependent on expensive oil and gas imports and would like to exploit raw materials in its backyard.
Much more at stake than energy.
It is known that in Erdogan’s recent talks with the leaders of Germany, Greece and Israel, the energy issue took a prominent place. Ankara will continue to push hard to play a stronger role in the eastern Mediterranean. The transfer of natural gas from the region to Europe is possible only through Turkey, the Turkish president clarified.
It is up to the Europeans – and the Americans – how they will react to Ankara’s pressure. Critics point out that a pipeline through Turkey would run counter to the goal of energy diversification. Large quantities of valuable raw materials are already being shipped to Europe via Anatolia. The same critics warn that when it comes to energy policy, Europe should not depend on a state that is becoming increasingly authoritarian at home and has no clear commitment to the West in its foreign policy.
The struggle for the gas pipeline in the eastern Mediterranean has entered a new phase after the war in Ukraine. The price is high, especially for Greece and Cyprus. Much more at stake than energy.
Ronald Maynard
Dr. Ronald Maynardus is a political analyst, commentator and lead researcher at ELIAMEP. In the mid-1990s he was director of the Greek editorial board of Deutsche Welle.
DW – Ronald Maynardus
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