The new Turkish Cypriot “president” who is elected tomorrow will also determine the path of the pseudo-state towards the Cypriot state, always under the suffocating control of Ankara. Analysis. The Turkish Cypriots will elect their new leader and “president” of the so-called “TRDBK” on October 19. Although the powers of the respective Turkish Cypriot “president” are limited to managing the talks to resolve the Cyprus problem, the stakes of the elections also concern the very preservation of the characteristics of the Turkish Cypriot community. Speaking to DW, Turkish Cypriot professor and former MEP Niazi Kizilyurek explains that “the elections for the selection of a new leader take on the character of a referendum both for the will of the Turkish Cypriots in relation to the Cyprus problem, and for the preservation of the ethno-political Turkish Cypriot identity”.

With the support of “Mother Turkey”

The election for a second consecutive term is contested by the current leader of the Turkish Cypriots, Ersin Tatar, who is supported by the Turkish Cypriot Right Party (UBP) and the YDP party, which is linked to the Turkish population of the “TRNC” known as the “settler party”. Agreeing with Ankara and with the position of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan that “the only realistic solution for solving the Cyprus problem is to accept the existence of two states on the island”, Ersin Tatar promises the continuation for another five years of his policy of promoting the two-state solution.

In recent years, this position has put the UN negotiations for a solution to the Cyprus Problem on ice, as it is outside the framework that the UN Secretary General himself set as the basis for a solution to the Cyprus problem after the collapse of the talks in the early hours of July 7, 2017 in Crans-Montana, Switzerland. The Tatar-Erdogan sympathies for the Cypriot issue bring support for his candidacy from Ankara, which is expressed through visits by AKP parliamentarians, Turkey’s vice president Cevdet Yilmaz himself, as well as personalities such as former German national football player Mesut Ozil, who is known for his personal relationship with Tayyip Erdogan.

However, the Turkish support for Ersin Tatar is not only about the agreement regarding the form of solution of the Cyprus problem, but is also based on the tolerance he shows towards the agenda of political Islam. After all, during his own “presidency” and under the governance of the UBP, the right-wing party from which he comes, the controversial regulation was passed that allows the use of the hijab headscarf in Turkish Cypriot schools. The event caused the revolt of the great majority of Turkish Cypriots, as it was considered a sign of further Islamization of society and the retreat of the secular character of its identity.

With the federation on the agenda

On the other side, Tufan Erhurman is contesting for the leadership of the Turkish Cypriots as a candidate of the Turkish Cypriot Left party CTP and is supported by the party of the former leader of the Turkish Cypriots Mustafa Akinci, but also by Serdar Denktash, son of the historical leader of the Turkish Cypriots Rauf Denktash. In his agenda, he highlights the need for the visibility of the Turkish Cypriot community, its culture and its secular identity. In relation to the Cyprus issue, he emphasizes his commitment to the UN resolutions for the federal solution and in his public statements he insists that the federal perspective is the only realistic option in the Cyprus issue, based on the relevant UN decisions, while underlining that the future security and perspective of the Turkish Cypriot community is linked to Europe.

Toufan Erhiurman even sets specific conditions for his return to the dialogue table in the event of his election and calls on the President of the Republic of Cyprus Nikos Christodoulidis to prepare for a dialogue. “Tufan Erhiurman wants to talk about a federation” explains Mr. Kizilyurek, “putting some conditions which include timetables and talks aimed at a result, while he asks for the end of the status quo in case of failure of the talks under the responsibility of the Greek Cypriot side”. This may mean a request to end the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots with direct trade and direct flights, N. Kiziligiurek estimates.

The politics of demography

Speaking to DW about the upcoming elections, Nikos Moudouros, a professor at the Department of Turkish and Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Cyprus, highlights the new developments regarding the demographic composition of the Turkish Cypriot community and, by extension, its electorate. He points out that there are indications that, of the 218,000 voters, approximately 55%–60% are native Turkish Cypriots, while approximately 40%–45% are voters who have one or no Turkish Cypriot parents. This demographic change in the pseudo-state) is linked to the massive granting of “citizens” to Turkish nationals in the last five years. Citing data from previous election contests within the Turkish Cypriot community, Moudouros explained that “the political power of the native Turkish Cypriots is steadily declining, and it is possible that the increase of the Turkish element in the population will even translate into numerical superiority at the polls in the next elections.”