The share of voters who intend to vote for former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the October election is higher among those who say that there has been insufficient food at home in recent months and among those who think unemployment tends to increase.
PT also has more adherence among those who believe that the deaths of journalist Dom Phillips and indigenist Bruno Pereira will damage Brazil’s image abroad and among those who do not believe in God, despite attracting more Catholics.
See below what Brazilians who have Lula as their first choice for president think about four themes: economy, Amazon, religion and influence in the vote. Also understand their profile, in general poorer, black, indigenous, young, northeastern, homosexual and resident of the interior.
The subjects were questioned in the latest Datafolha survey, carried out with 2,556 people over 16 years old in 181 cities across the country on June 22 and 23. The survey was commissioned by Sheet and is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-05166/2022.
The total margin of error is two percentage points. It is important to consider, however, that it increases when considering only those who will vote for each pre-candidate: it is three points among voters for Lula, four for Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and seven for Ciro Gomes (PDT), always in the poll. stimulated.
The other candidates for the position were not included because the sample is too small.
1. ECONOMY
More than a third of Lula’s voters say that the amount of food at home for themselves and their family has been less than enough in recent months (35%). The number is much higher than the supporters of Bolsonaro (10%) and Ciro (20%), even considering the margins of error.
Consequently, most PT supporters are concerned about rising unemployment — 54% think it will grow from now on, against 45% in total voters — and inflation. Even so, almost a third of Lulas believe that their purchasing power will increase (30%, close to the total average).
2. AMAZON
About half of Lula’s supporters believe that Bolsonaro encourages rather than fights deforestation, the invasion of indigenous lands and illegal hunting, fishing and mining in the Amazon. Still, a quarter of them, on average, think that the current president fights rather than encourages these crimes.
Voters of the former president were also less aware of the murders of Dom and Bruno (73%, against 77% of supporters of Bolsonaro and 84% of Ciro). Most of them think that the case will damage Brazil’s image abroad (55%, against 47% of the total) and that the government has done less than it could (62%, against 49% of the total).
3. RELIGION
Considering the three best placed pre-candidates, PT is the one that most attracts people who do not believe in God (17%, against 2% for Bolsonaro and 8% for Ciro). His supporters also attend and contribute less financially to religious institutions, compared to supporters of his main rival.
The survey, however, does not show significant differences from candidate to candidate when asked if the religious cult that the interviewee attends usually makes recommendations on politics (in general, about a fifth say yes among the voters of Lula, Bolsonaro and Ciro) .
4. INFLUENCE ON THE VOTE
The share of Lula supporters who feel influenced by the opinion of external actors when voting is similar to the total number of voters when talking about comrades (24% report a lot of influence), people on social networks (16%) and leaders of the church (16%).
This number, however, is slightly higher among PT supporters when they are asked about children (27% feel very influenced, against 22% in total) and journalists (19%, against 17%), but the variations remain within the error margins.
5. PROFILE
The most recent poll shows that nearly two in ten Lula voters do not define themselves as heterosexual (18%), a higher share than Bolsonaro (7%) and Ciro (11%). The former president also attracts more women (56% of his electorate, against 41% of Bolsonaro’s) and young people.
He garners more votes in inner cities (61% of his supporters live in these places, against 58% for Bolsonaro and 51% for Ciro) —but within the margin of error—and among the poorest (62% of his supporters earn up to two monthly minimum wages).
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